Tasmania recorded its worst net interstate migration loss in 12 years for the financial year 2011/12, losing 2,552 persons over the 12 month period, compared with 47 the year before and gaining 322 the year before that (2009/10).

From a net migration perspective, Tasmania has historically always experienced a net loss in the younger ages of 15 to 29, seeking education, employment or life experience opportunities.  Historically, the state has always experienced a net gain in the older ages of 45 to 75 and over, contributing to the rate of ageing. However, for the year 2011/12 the state experienced losses in all age groups from 0 to 54 and also, for the third time, a loss in the 75 years and over age group.  This is evident in the below diagram illustrating Net Interstate Migration for Tasmania by age group from 1996/97 until 2011/12.

It is easy to assume that this significant loss is the result of high levels of Tasmanians leaving the state in search of opportunities elsewhere.  However, this is not the case.  Net migration movements are the difference between arrivals to the state and departures from the state.  The cause of the recent net migration loss is actually a greater decline in the number of arrivals to the state, rather than a significant increase in numbers leaving the state.  Furthermore, while there has been slight increases in the numbers departing for each age group for the past three years, since data collection began in 1996/97 the numbers have been trending downwards for all age groups apart from those 55 to 75 and over (which are comparatively small in number).  However, arrivals to the state have also been trending downwards over this time, again apart from those 55 to 75 and over (which are also comparatively small in number).  This means that there have not been enough arrivals to the state to replace the ones who are leaving.  Interestingly, but not surprisingly, Tasmania experienced its greatest net migration gains from 2002/03 to 2005/06 when arrivals peaked for all age groups and departures were at their lowest, coinciding with the relative economic prosperity the state and nation were experiencing. 

Importantly however, 10,182 people arrived in Tasmania during 2011/12 (compared with a departures of 12,738).  Of these arrivals, the largest group was those aged 25 to 29 (1,156 people or over 10 per cent of the total arrivals), closely followed by those aged 30 to 34 (938 people).  While more people did leave the state in these age group than arrive, it is indicative that young, prime working age people still move to Tasmania, and more do so than in any other age group.

The challenge for Tasmania is to reverse the recent slight increase in the numbers departing the state and maintain arrivals in order to return the state to positive interstate migration movements.  
 

An article published in The Conversation

https://theconversation.edu.au/tackling-the-challenge-of-tasmanias-ageing-population-11336 

Released today, the ABS Labour Force data suggests that employment continues to languish nationwide.  In Tasmania, around 5000 full time jobs were lost in the past year, partially offset by increases in part time employment so that total employment fell by around 2000 in the twelve months since December 2011.  However, over the same period total employment for males increased slightly while for females it decreased.  This is evident in the unemployment rates where the male rate remained steady at 6.9 and the female rate increased from 5.8 to 7.1, resulting in an unemployment rate of 7.0 in trend terms for the state (compared with a national rate of 5.4) and the participation rate decreased slightly to 60.3 (65.1 nationally).

In finding a solution to the employment challenge, there is little to gain from increasing investment in education and training given that it is likely that many of those actively seeking work already have qualifications, skills and experience.  In addition, many recent graduates are likely to be joining the employment queue.   

The most effective means for increasing employment opportunities will be to attract investment to the state and stimulate demand for workers.  While there will be those touting the silver lining of the recent bush fires and the stimulus involved in rebuilding vital communities, this will provide short term relief only, The state needs to continue its investment in creating a competitive business environment to leverage our natural competitive and comparative advantages.  This includes investment in infrastructure, particularly freight logistics as well as regulatory reform in terms of planning and the labour market. 

At a leadership forum facilitated last week by UTAS, former premier Michael Field suggested that an authority position provides the vessel for leadership, but holding it does not automatically mean you are a leader.  
Leadership is a process which directs, influences and co-ordinates a higher objective.  

I would like to provide you with my ‘wish list’ for the future provision of education in Tasmania.  These are simple dot points which I would be happy to expand on if you require further clarification.

1.       That all schools; rural, regional or urban provide education to year 12
2.       That the provision of education services be demographically informed
3.       That the provision of education be aligned with the industry make-up within the relevant rural, regional or urban context
4.       That a first class transport service be provided to students
5.       That education services be integrated with LINCs, post-school education providers (vocational and tertiary) and other education and training providers.
6.       That other public services be integrated with the provision of education so that employment opportunities and optimal health is ensured
7.       That the provision of education services are integrated on a long term basis with the State and Regional Economic Development Plans as well as the Industry Diversification Plan resulting from the Tasmanian Forests Intergovernmental Agreement. 

Historically, Tasmania has always experienced net migration losses in the younger education and working ages of 15 to 29 years as a direct result of a lack of education and employment opportunities. This is particularly exacerbated in rural and regional areas of the state where schooling is not often provided beyond year 10 and where there are no post-school education options at all.  Yet, at the same time, much of the state’s contribution to economic growth is sourced from industries in these rural and regional areas.  This results in a serious mis-match between supply of labour and demand for labour - particularly educated, skilled and experienced labour.

I believe that the above dot points can be achieved through a strategic approach to integrate education with economic development through the provision of infrastructure, services and amenities.  Following the process of identifying potential industries and areas of economic growth, investment in ‘infrastructure hubs’ should be a priority.  These hubs should include the provision of education to year 12 as well as vocational and tertiary (utilising LINCs and the NBN), health, transport and recreational services, including services such as aged, disability and child care and cater to the needs of the sub-population.  The need for these hubs should be informed by the population demographics, the industry make-up and the prospects of the region. 

An infrastructure hub approach to the provision of public services has the potential to provide opportunities to Tasmania and Tasmanians not previously possible, including reducing the disbursement of the population, the opportunity for critical mass and economies of scale.