Yesterday the Australian Bureau of Statistics released new regional migration data estimating both interstate and intrastate migration movements within Australia (catalogue 3412.0). 

Available data includes arrivals, departures and net movements by age and sex for various sub-state geographies (SA3, SA4 and LGA) for the years ending 30 June 2006/07 to 2013/14.

The new data provides for much greater insight and understanding of population movements in smaller areas than previously possible. This can be used to inform planning, provision of services (e.g. child care, schools, aged care, public transport etc) and investment in infrastructure (roads, community amenities, communications technology etc) much more effectively. 

There is much that can be done with this data, so I just provide a quick snapshot using three different data sets. 

The first data set provides estimates of arrivals, departures and net migration movements by local government area (LGA) for the 8 years from 2006/07 to 2013/14.  The below figure shows the average annual net gains or losses for each LGA. The Glenorchy, Launceston and Hobart municipalities recorded the greatest average migration losses while the Kingborough, Latrobe and Sorell municipalities recorded the greatest average gains. This data is also available at the SA2 level, but given there are 98 SA2s, I have not presented the data here. However, this data would be particularly useful for local councils to gain a greater understanding of change within smaller areas of their municipalities. 

The second data set provides estimates of net migration movements by age at the SA3 geographical classification level. This data is particularly useful in understanding the changes in the age profile of the region and how it may impact on service provision in the area. It can also provide an indication of the rate of ageing and potential for growth/decline in the area. I have aggregated the data into 0 to 14 years, working age (15 to 64 years) and 65 and older. As is evident in the figure below few areas experienced average gains in all age groups. Gains in those aged 0 to 14 will contribute to making the area younger, while comparative gains in those aged 65 and older will contribute to the ageing of the population at a greater rate. Large changes in the working age group impacts on the potential supply of labour and the ability to service the needs of the area, particularly in areas beyond an acceptable commuting distance. 

The final data set for this snapshot is the migration by region of arrival and departure. As the table below shows, for 2013/14, almost a quarter of all regional migration movements out of the Hobart, Launceston and North East or the West and North West regions of Tasmania remain in Tasmania.  The eastern seaboard states of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland attract the majority of the other migration movements. 

It is likely that the Australian Population Association (APA) will run some half day courses on using and understanding demographic data in Tasmania in the near future.  If you are interested in attending a course, please express interest to me via email lisa at lisadenny.com.au.  I will be able to provide further information when it becomes available. 

Contrary to popular belief (see Job Stats Good News), the recent growth in employment in Tasmania has not been driven by the burgeoning tourism sector (see bottom of the article for an explanation of the tourism sector for employment purposes). 

In the three month to February 2015, employment declined overall by 438 jobs.  Employment growth was dominated by the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector (3,605 more mainly full time jobs), health care and social assistance (2,944 more jobs) and transport, postal and warehousing (2,149 more mainly full time jobs) sectors. Employment has declined over the same period in public administration and safety (3,323 less jobs), retail trade (2,953 less mainly full time jobs) and accommodation and food services (1,370 less mainly part time jobs). 

Since February 2014, there are now 8,806 more Tasmanians in employment.  This growth has been led by retail (2,600 more mainly part time jobs), other services (1,859 mainly part time jobs) and construction (1,797 mainly full time jobs).  However, employment has declined in accommodation and food services (3,366 less mainly part time jobs), mining (1,521 less mainly full time jobs) and public administration and safety (644 less mainly part time jobs). 

Compared with five years ago, employment in Tasmania is higher by 6,551 with the greatest gains experienced in education and training (3,835 jobs), transport, postal and warehousing (3,473 jobs) and other services (3,145 jobs). Employment is lower than five years ago in public administration and safety (3,766 jobs), manufacturing (3,697) and construction (2,243 jobs).

The change in employment in Tasmania over the last three months, 12 months and five years for each industry sector is provided below. Importantly, the change in the composition of employment by industry sector has a direct impact on Tasmania's productivity performance, as I have previously explained here. 

The Tourism Sector:
While industry sectors are defined on the basis of the goods and services which they mainly produce, the tourism industry is defined according to the status of the consumer. That is, it is the characteristics of the consumer that determine whether the production is included within the scope of tourism. The Tourism Satellite Account provides a means by which the economic aspects of tourism can be drawn out and analysed separately using the structure of the main industry sectors where at least 25 per cent of the total output of the product must be consumed by visitors.The industry sector sub-divisions included for employment purposes include: Accommodation, cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services, clubs, pubs, taverns and bars, rail transport, road transport and motor vehicle hiring, taxi transport, other road transport, motor vehicle hiring, air, water and other transpot, travel agency and tour operator services,cultural services, casinos and other gambling services, sports and recreation services, other sports and recreation services, retail trade, other retail trade, automotive fuel retailing, education and training