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This snapshot provides an insight into the structural change that has occurred in the Tasmanian labour market over the past 12 months, incorporating a pre-pandemic analysis.

Compared with pre-pandemic times, in February 2020, when there were around 261,400 Tasmanians employed, in August 2020, there were 255,300 Tasmanians employed, more than the 248,700 employed in August 2019.

The employment to population ratio was 57.2, down from 58.8 in February 2020, however higher than the 56.4 in August 2019.

The unemployment rate in August 2020 was 6.3% compared with 4.9% in February 2020 and 6.4% in August 2019.

The labour force participation rate was 61.1% in August 2020, compared with 61.8% in February and 60.2% in August 2019.

Around 17,200 were actively looking for work in August 2020, compared with 14,500 in February and 16,900 in August 2019.

Given the JobKeeper payment masks true employment, structural change in the Tasmanian labour market will be analysed using original, hours actually worked data from the ABS Labour Force, Quarterly, Detailed publication released on 25th of September 2020.

This analysis looks at which industry sectors have increased or decreased the hours worked since February 2020 (pre-pandemic times) and August 2019 and how the share of hours worked has changed within the economy.

The top five industries for hours worked in August 2020, making up almost have of all hours actually worked (49.8%), were health care and social assistance (14.5 percentage point share), education and training (9.8 PP), retail trade (8.9 PP), construction (8.3 PP) and agriculture, forestry and fishing (8.3 PP).

In February 2020, manufacturing was in the top five industry sectors for hours worked, whereas retail trade was sixth.

Greater structural change in the economy is evident when compared with August 2019 when health care and social assistance, construction, education and training, retail trade and public administration and safety were the top five industries for hours actually worked.
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​Compared with pre-pandemic times, Tasmanians worked 1.4% less hours in August 2020 than in February 2020. Tasmanians worked more hours in seven industries compared with pre-pandemic times; professional, scientific and technical services (14.9%), retail trade (12.4%), logistics (11.4%), utilities (4.4%), health care and social assistance (3.8%), public administration and safety (1.2%) and education and training (1.1%). 

Compared with 12 months ago, Tasmanians worked 3.2% more hours in August 2020. All industries recorded more worked hours except for arts and recreation services (-46.6%), mining (-33.8%), information media and telecommunications (-14.6%), other services (-7.6%) and health care and social assistance (-2.4%).

In terms of the share of hours actually worked for the total Tasmanian economy since February 2020 (pre-pandemic) the greatest increase in the share of hours actually worked was in retail trade (1.1 percentage point increase in the share of hours worked) followed by professional, scientific and technical services (1.0 PP), healthcare and social assistance (0.7 PP) and logistics (0.6 PP). These gains in share of hours worked were offset by a decline in the share of hours worked in the accommodation and food services sector (-1.0 PP), construction (-0.8 PP), arts and recreation services (-0.5 PP) and administrative and support services (-0.4 PP).

The structural change in the economy is vastly different over the 12 month period when compared with August 2019. Over 12 months, the economy saw a shift to agriculture, forestry and fishing (0.9 PP), professional, scientific and technical services (0.9 PP), utilities (0.8 PP), logistics (0.6 PP) and education and training (0.5 PP). This shift was offset by declines in the share of the hours worked in construction (-1.1 PP), arts and recreation services (-1.1 PP), healthcare and social assistance (-0.8 PP) and mining (-0.6 PP).  The share of the hours worked had no change for manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, accommodation and food services and public administration and safety.

This analysis points to an increase in spending and/or discretionary income over the six months since February 2020, being realised by, or redirected to, the retail trade and associated logistics sector, from the accommodation and food services, construction and arts and recreation sectors, as well as an understandable increase in health care and social assistance during the pandemic period. It raises the question of what the impact of the reduction of the JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments on employment and hours worked will be into the future, at least over the short term.

However, when compared with 12 months ago, prior to the pandemic, the change in the share of hours actually worked shifted to sectors which are predominantly trade/market sectors (agriculture, forestry and fishing) and higher skilled (professional, scientific and technical services, as well as utilities and education and training), indicating a positive structural shift which may result in employed people working more hours for higher levels of income, which can then be distributed as discretionary income in the wider economy. change in the professional, scientific and technical services sector is also a leading indictor for change in the construction sector, suggesting that increases in the hours worked in the construction sector is possible in the short term. 

The decline in both the number of hours worked, as well as the share, in health care and social assistance is both surprising and concerning given the impact of the pandemic on our health and well-being as well as the pressure the Tasmanian health system was under prior to the pandemic and the need to ensure the state is prepared for COVID-19 outbreaks into the future. 

On International Literacy Day it is important that we ask, what does it mean to be literate? Literally, being literate means that a person is able to read and write to a level that enables them to function in society.
In addition to the personal benefits that arises from sharing a story with a child, making a choice from a menu of options, or being challenged from the ideas written in a newspaper – literacy supports health, employment and well-being outcomes over the life-course.
In 2019, one in five Tasmanian grade seven students started the year at or below the National Minimum Standard (NMS) for reading. The minimum standard represents a very low level of reading skill, so the 1,437 Tasmanians who started grade 7 in 2019, is actually a very conservative estimate of the true number of grade 7 Tasmanian students who struggle with reading. Those who are not reading proficiently by this age are highly likely to struggle with the demands of the wider curriculum and are more likely to not complete school.
This poor level of reading skill was identified in both the Year 3 and Year 5 NAPLAN assessments for this grade 7 cohort. Evidence suggests that what is being done is not yet improving results. Most students who were at or below the NMS in grade 3 and grade 5, still were by the time they started high school. Furthermore, the proportion of grade seven students who were at or above the NMS has been declining since 2014, despite a gain in the average mean score.  
In addition to the personal benefits that accrue from literacy there are broader economic and societal gains. It is estimated that for every cohort that doesn’t complete school, costs the Australian economy $12 billion over their lifetime.
In Tasmania, over half (57%) of those of working age (15 to 64 years) have not completed year 12.  Of those who have completed year 12, three quarters (75.2%) are employed, as are 68.1% of those who completed year 10. Only 38% of those who completed year 9 or below are employed.
When being literate is vital to secure individual, social and economic outcomes for Tasmania, why is it not a public policy and industry priority of the highest order?
The Business Council of Australia’s recent publication, “The Modern Worker: a guide to what employers want”, explicitly outlines employer expectations for the first day of work. Literacy and numeracy capabilities are a pre-requisite. The BCA encapsulates literacy as the ability to read and write an email using sentences, understanding vocabulary and the meaning of words in a sentence and paragraph, being able to follow instructions in manuals and interpret, assess and evaluate information from the perspective of the job as well as oral communication skills; being able to hold professional conversations with colleagues, clients or customers.  These are literacy skills many of us take for granted, but, in Tasmania, almost half the working age population is not functionally literate.
Literacy skills need to be supported from birth and then throughout the lifecourse. There are ways to do this.
Sharing books, stories, songs and rhymes every day from birth fosters emergent literacy development and supports attachment. Reading and talking to young children builds language skills and sparks imagination. Reading, looking at books, or sharing stories is also a special time to snuggle up and connect. The Channel Basics, using an evidence-based model, is working with children, families and communities to foster early childhood development outcomes.
Fivefromfive, AUSPELD and Learning Difficulties Australia recently launched a plan to have all students reading by the end of primary school; the Primary Reading Pledge. In the plan they provide a framework to ensure that the number of children who finish primary school in Australia unable to read is reduced to near zero.
The #primaryreadingpledge calls on all Australian Education Ministers to ensure that schools and systems are able to provide children the high quality evidence-based reading instruction they need (and deserve). The pledge argues that NAPLAN is an indicator that should be acted upon if students are identified in grade 3 as not meeting the NMS. Through direct and explicit intervention - reading instruction based on the cognitive processes of learning to read - all children should be supported so they do not start grade 7 below the NMS.
Recognising the importance of reengaging adults with opportunities to gain literacy skills is vital and achievable. 26TEN has made positive inroads and the work of former Tasmanian of the Year Rosalie Martin is also to be applauded in leading the charge for the #100percentliteracy goal in Tasmania.
A continued policy focus on core educational skills – such as literacy – is vital for Tasmania’s prosperity. There is much more to be done to ensure that literacy is at the core of policy, planning and program activity now and into the future across government, industry and the community.
 
Dr Lisa Denny is an independent Workforce Demographer and Dr Becky Shelley is the Deputy Director at the Peter Underwood Centre for Educational Attainment at the University of Tasmania. 
This article was published as a Talking Point in the Mercury on Tuesday 8 September 2020.
https://www.themercury.com.au/news/opinion/talking-point-what-does-it-mean-to-be-literate/news-story/f9fd061bf88c93660bbdfa948ffe5235​