Men and women experience a vastly different pattern of attachment to the labour force which still reflects the traditional life course model of male  breadwinner and female care giver. The level of attachment to the labour force differs for men and women depending on the presence or not of a partner and the presence or not of children. Until equity in the home and the workforce is achieved, gender equality will not be possible.

​The below charts illustrate the labour force status for men and women for approximately 6 million 25 to 64 year old Australians with post school qualifications (vocational or tertiary qualification) by the presence of a partner or presence of children; no children (NC), dependent children (DC) those aged younger than 15 or attending full time study, or non-dependent children (NDC) those aged over 15. This represents 58 percent of all Australians aged 25 to 64.

Clearly evident is that men increase their level of attachment to the labour force with the addition of a partner and further with the addition of a child. The converse is true for women; women reduce their level of attachment to the labour force with the presence of a partner and further reduce it with addition of a child. Furthermore, these patterns are consistent for all five year age groups.

While not discounting the role and contribution of partnering and parenting to society, both have a long term impact on women. Noting this is a cross-sectional analysis, rather than longitudinal, even when women no longer have dependent children, their level of attachment to the labour force is lower than those without children, regardless of the presence of a partner or not. Furthermore, labour force participation is dominated by part time employment for women who are partnered and those who have children.

Until equitable and fair participation is achieved in the home and at work, equal opportunity for men and women in the workforce will be difficult to achieve. A cultural shift in the home is required before structural opportunities can be realised.

Numerous studies have identified that people who have visited Tasmania are more likely to consider moving to the State. As such, the role that the tourism experience will play in contributing to population growth in Tasmania will be considerable.

The shift towards the concept of a visitor economy being touted by Dr James Cretan, Chair of Tourism Tasmania, by expanding on the current tourism led economic revival efforts is a good one. This is particularly so given that visitor economy models focus on strengthening supply chains and infrastructure investment which contribute to developing a well-diversified economy providing greater opportunity for secure employment. In the past one of the key drivers for outward migration has been the lack of employment opportunities in Tasmania, contributing to the current scenario of projected population decline.

The visitor economy model is one which transitions the concept of a tourism industry based on the direct consumption of tourism related products and services to a broader concept encompassing the indirect economic and social contribution of industry sub-sectors which rely on and support the direct tourism industry. The visitor economy is largely focused on the supply side of the tourism industry equation.

This is clearly important when considering a Deloitte report “Capturing the Visitor Economy: A framework for success” which showed that there is a strong relationship between the contribution to the GDP of a country’s tourism sector to the government expenditure on the sector, but there is no correlation between the quality of the tourism offering (measured by competiveness rank) and the level of government expenditure on the sector.  This finding suggests that the quality of the tourism offering is more closely related to the attributes of the visitor economy capital. To that end it is the supply side factors such as the effective delivery of infrastructure and relative attractiveness of the place which will have the greatest long term impact on the broader economy, and population.  

Tasmania’s unbalanced population age structure, caused by a disproportionately lower number of working and reproducing aged people, is contributing to Tasmania’s imminent projected population decline. The best solution to mitigate Tasmania’s anticipated population decline and to adequately provide for the population is to retain and attract working families to Tasmania.

Given the interrelated nature of the tourism experience, the potential visitor economy creating employment opportunities and the need to address the challenges of projected population decline by attracting the working and reproducing age population, it makes sense to ensure that Tasmania’s tourism marketing efforts also captures this demographic.

Tasmania’s tourism market is dominated by domestic (Australian) visitors. Tourism Tasmania’s research of those Australians most likely to be influenced to visit the state identified two target audiences: those aged 40+ couples seeking a touring experience and aged 25 to 39 couples wanting a short break.

The reality is that these couple DINKs (Double Income No Kids) now have kids in tow. Over the past decade, Australia has experienced a baby boom. From 2004 to 2013 there were 2,907,847 babies born in Australia, 391,265 more than the previous decade, an increase of 15.5 per cent. Almost 78 per cent of these babies were born to women aged 25 to 39. Those educated and wealthy couples who had previously delayed their childbearing to pursue education, careers and other opportunities are now playing catch up, or demographically speaking ‘recuperating delayed births’, contributing to both a rise in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and the number of babies being born. Importantly however, research suggests that these former DINKs wish to maintain the lifestyle they led pre-children, including holidays. 

At the time of the ABS 2011 Census of Population and Housing 60 per cent of 25 to 39 year old women had at least one child – ranging from 38 per cent of 25 to 29 year old women to 79 per cent of 35 to 39 year old women.

Restricting marketing efforts to target couples only, not only reduces the size of the market segment, but impacts on the ability to attract working and reproducing families to move to Tasmania.

With Lonely Planet listing Tasmania as the second most family-friendly travel destination in Australia, it is important to ensure the State delivers on (supply side) expectations. This doesn’t mean creating serendipitous theme parks, but ensuring that tourism providers more adequately provide for positive family experiences. If the kids are happy, the parents will linger longer, spend more and perhaps even move to Tasmania.

Labour force data released by the ABS today shows changes in employment by industry (ANZSIC divison 1) over time. 

The changes over the past 3 months, 12 months, 3 years and 5 years demonstrate the volatility of the Tasmanian employment market and the impact of factors such as economic conditions (locally and globally) and policy intervention. The table below shows the difference in the number of people employed in each industry sector in May 2015 compared with the previous period in each column. 

Comparing employment figures to the previous 12 months removes the seasonality factors associated with the quarterly difference and coincides with the stabilisation of the Tasmanian economy and a new Government and policy direction. 

Since May 2014, the greatest employment gain has been in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry sector which encompasses architectural, engineering, legal, accounting, advertising, market research, management, consulting, veterinarian and computer design services. The greatest employment loss has been in the Accommodation and Food Services sector.  The below table shows the change in employment for each industry sector compared with May 2014. 

In terms of whether employment growth has been in wealth generating, essential services or consequential industry sectors (as per my recent blog), growth has been dominated by jobs in the essential services sectors, particularly the health care and social assistance sector which is consistent with projected increasing demand resulting from an ageing population and the roll out of the NDIS. Employment losses are evident in the consequential sectors such as accommodation and food services and construction.  Since May 2014, there has been minimal net growth in wealth generating industries, with growth in manufacturing compensating for losses in mining and agriculture, forestry and fishing. 

If Tasmania is to become more self-reliant, job creation efforts need to focus on growth in the wealth-generating sectors which will then support growth in the consequential sectors and assist provide, and fund, essential services for the broader population. 

Long term job creation in Tasmania, and its future economic stability, will result from growing those industry sectors which I refer to as wealth generating industries. 

Industry sectors can be classified as either wealth generating, essential services or consequential industry sectors.  

Wealth generating industries are those in the private sector which are predominantly trade based sectors. Wealth generating industries are positive net contributors of tax receipt revenue through both sectoral core business activity and associated taxes and through the employment of tax payers. 

Essential services industries are those sectors which are largely funded by public money to provide essential services to the population. 

Consequential industries are those sectors reliant on the availability of discretionary income (the amount of an individual's (and households) after tax income available for spending after the essentials have been taken care of )[1].  Discretionary income comes in the form of the employed population, tourists, international students and financially independent individuals; increasingly self-funded retirees in an ageing population. Consequential industries are also dependent on the business confidence of wealth generating industries, and to a lesser degree, essential services industries, in the form of both investment and employment decisions. 

The ability to provide essential services to a population is dependent on government revenue collected through tax receipts. and of course, Commonwealth distributions. 

Each ANZSIC sector is classified into wealth generating, essential services and consequential industries in the table attached below. The Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services industry sector is an interesting one to classify given it is dominated by GBEs, however, given its dependence on wealth generating industries consumption and households, it is classified as a consequential industry. 

In Tasmania's case, as at June 2014, wealth generating industries account for only 21 per cent of GSP contribution and 18 per cent of the share of employment. Whereas, consequential industries account for 50 per cent of GSP and 50 per cent of employment and essential services industries, predominantly funded by public money, contributes 29 per cent to GSP and to almost a third of employment in Tasmania, as per the diagram below. This distribution by wealth generating, essential services and consequential industry sectors makes Tasmania highly vulnerable to economic shocks. 

The contribution to GSP and employment by individual ANZSIC codes is provided in the figure below. 

Given that job creation in consequential sectors is dependent upon an increase in discretionary income and business confidence, and job creation in the essential services is dependant on fiscal sustainability in public finances, long term job creation will be dependent on growth in the wealth generating industry sectors. 

Increased investment and employment in wealth generating sectors will result in an increase in the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) of individual and households.  

When MPC increases, consumption in consequential sectors is likely to increase, increasing employment, as such, tax receipts will increase correspondingly and likely result increased government expenditure in the form of infrastructure spending and employment in the essential services sectors.  When MPC decreases (in times of economic downturn), consumption in consequential sectors decreases and job losses occur (unless demand is stimulated by external sources e.g. tourists, international students, financially independent people etc). Furthermore, the ability to provide essential services is compromised in times of economic downturn. 

If Tasmania is to enjoy long term, sustainable employment growth into the future, then job creation needs to focus on the wealth generating industry sectors. To grow these sectors, attention needs to be provided to improving and increasing the 3Cs - competitiveness, capability and capacity as I have outlined in a previous blog and presentation - Tasmania's productivity profile. 

[1] Discretionary income is disposable income (after-tax income), minus all payments that are necessary to meet current bills. It is total personal income after subtracting taxes and typical expenses (such as rent or mortgage, utilities, insurance, medical, transportation, property maintenance, child support, food and sundries, etc.) to maintain a certain standard of living

Yesterday the Australian Bureau of Statistics released new regional migration data estimating both interstate and intrastate migration movements within Australia (catalogue 3412.0). 

Available data includes arrivals, departures and net movements by age and sex for various sub-state geographies (SA3, SA4 and LGA) for the years ending 30 June 2006/07 to 2013/14.

The new data provides for much greater insight and understanding of population movements in smaller areas than previously possible. This can be used to inform planning, provision of services (e.g. child care, schools, aged care, public transport etc) and investment in infrastructure (roads, community amenities, communications technology etc) much more effectively. 

There is much that can be done with this data, so I just provide a quick snapshot using three different data sets. 

The first data set provides estimates of arrivals, departures and net migration movements by local government area (LGA) for the 8 years from 2006/07 to 2013/14.  The below figure shows the average annual net gains or losses for each LGA. The Glenorchy, Launceston and Hobart municipalities recorded the greatest average migration losses while the Kingborough, Latrobe and Sorell municipalities recorded the greatest average gains. This data is also available at the SA2 level, but given there are 98 SA2s, I have not presented the data here. However, this data would be particularly useful for local councils to gain a greater understanding of change within smaller areas of their municipalities. 

The second data set provides estimates of net migration movements by age at the SA3 geographical classification level. This data is particularly useful in understanding the changes in the age profile of the region and how it may impact on service provision in the area. It can also provide an indication of the rate of ageing and potential for growth/decline in the area. I have aggregated the data into 0 to 14 years, working age (15 to 64 years) and 65 and older. As is evident in the figure below few areas experienced average gains in all age groups. Gains in those aged 0 to 14 will contribute to making the area younger, while comparative gains in those aged 65 and older will contribute to the ageing of the population at a greater rate. Large changes in the working age group impacts on the potential supply of labour and the ability to service the needs of the area, particularly in areas beyond an acceptable commuting distance. 

The final data set for this snapshot is the migration by region of arrival and departure. As the table below shows, for 2013/14, almost a quarter of all regional migration movements out of the Hobart, Launceston and North East or the West and North West regions of Tasmania remain in Tasmania.  The eastern seaboard states of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland attract the majority of the other migration movements. 

It is likely that the Australian Population Association (APA) will run some half day courses on using and understanding demographic data in Tasmania in the near future.  If you are interested in attending a course, please express interest to me via email lisa at lisadenny.com.au.  I will be able to provide further information when it becomes available. 

Contrary to popular belief (see Job Stats Good News), the recent growth in employment in Tasmania has not been driven by the burgeoning tourism sector (see bottom of the article for an explanation of the tourism sector for employment purposes). 

In the three month to February 2015, employment declined overall by 438 jobs.  Employment growth was dominated by the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector (3,605 more mainly full time jobs), health care and social assistance (2,944 more jobs) and transport, postal and warehousing (2,149 more mainly full time jobs) sectors. Employment has declined over the same period in public administration and safety (3,323 less jobs), retail trade (2,953 less mainly full time jobs) and accommodation and food services (1,370 less mainly part time jobs). 

Since February 2014, there are now 8,806 more Tasmanians in employment.  This growth has been led by retail (2,600 more mainly part time jobs), other services (1,859 mainly part time jobs) and construction (1,797 mainly full time jobs).  However, employment has declined in accommodation and food services (3,366 less mainly part time jobs), mining (1,521 less mainly full time jobs) and public administration and safety (644 less mainly part time jobs). 

Compared with five years ago, employment in Tasmania is higher by 6,551 with the greatest gains experienced in education and training (3,835 jobs), transport, postal and warehousing (3,473 jobs) and other services (3,145 jobs). Employment is lower than five years ago in public administration and safety (3,766 jobs), manufacturing (3,697) and construction (2,243 jobs).

The change in employment in Tasmania over the last three months, 12 months and five years for each industry sector is provided below. Importantly, the change in the composition of employment by industry sector has a direct impact on Tasmania's productivity performance, as I have previously explained here. 

The Tourism Sector:
While industry sectors are defined on the basis of the goods and services which they mainly produce, the tourism industry is defined according to the status of the consumer. That is, it is the characteristics of the consumer that determine whether the production is included within the scope of tourism. The Tourism Satellite Account provides a means by which the economic aspects of tourism can be drawn out and analysed separately using the structure of the main industry sectors where at least 25 per cent of the total output of the product must be consumed by visitors.The industry sector sub-divisions included for employment purposes include: Accommodation, cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services, clubs, pubs, taverns and bars, rail transport, road transport and motor vehicle hiring, taxi transport, other road transport, motor vehicle hiring, air, water and other transpot, travel agency and tour operator services,cultural services, casinos and other gambling services, sports and recreation services, other sports and recreation services, retail trade, other retail trade, automotive fuel retailing, education and training

Yesterday I had my nails done by a Nepalese man who has been in Hobart for three months. His story provides critical insight into the experience of migrants, and international students in particular, in Tasmania.

While I didn't learn his name, he was very well spoken and obviously well educated. He is here in Hobart to support his wife who is studying accounting at the University. He works 10 hours a day 7 days a week to save the $11,000 per semester for his wife to study here. When she is not studying, she also works as a nail technician. It's when they get to spend time together. It takes them 20 minutes to walk to work but he is considering buying a car to help his wife as there is no appropriate public transport to get to work or university (but parking is expensive and they don't earn much).

They chose Tasmania because of the low cost of living but as soon as his wife graduates they are looking forward to moving to Melbourne to get good jobs and live in a city which is not as quiet as Hobart and more cultural diversity.

It's a similar story to the Sudanese taxi driver I had the other week. He told me that many of his Sudanese community have left Tasmania but he likes it here and wants to stay. He and his wife are expecting their third child but they are going to have it in Sydney where they have more family support and better access to health services. He too was well spoken and obviously well educated but said the only regular work he can get is driving a cab. He likes the quiet life that Hobart offers.

These stories are reflective of migrant experiences in Tasmania and provide an alternative perspective to the current view of migrants as potential economic inputs. They are also people seeking opportunities for themselves and their families.

Tasmania’s ageing population creates an abundance of opportunity for our youth.  The ability to transform that opportunity into reality however will require significant investment – including foresight, planning and commitment.

Population ageing is more often than not viewed negatively.  This is an over-reaction.  Population ageing presents challenges resulting from change.  Just like any change, government and society need to adapt and innovate to capture the opportunities attached to that change. 

The problem with population ageing is not that there are too many older people but that there are not enough young people to 1) provide the products and services required by a changing demographic and 2) pay tax to fund the increasing demand for publicly funded services (e.g. health and aged care and pension entitlements).

The below figure illustrates the imminent loss of workers from the Tasmanian labour force due to retirement (or exit from the workforce), the immediate replacement labour (those aged say 25 to 45) and the imminent labour market entrants - our youth.  Each of these cohorts are significantly smaller in size than the cohort exiting the workforce. 

As a State we need to invest in each of these successive cohorts to ensure the opportunity for labour force participation, skill utilisation and productivity is maximised.  

Over the next 15 years in Tasmania over 100,000 workers will exit the workforce (based on the average age of retirement over the past five years - 61.5 years - as identified by the ABS in their Retirement and Retirement Intentions Survey).  This exodus creates employment opportunities for our youth.

Some of the jobs of these older workers may need to be replaced, some may not, but an older population will also transform the consumer market and require new jobs to be created. 

In Tasmania, we do not have enough people in the younger population (aged under 45) to replace these older workers, highlighting the critical importance of ensuring we shape and nurture our youth to take advantage of these opportunities. The ratio of labour market entrants to labour market exits in Tasmania is less than one, and has been since 2011.  This means that for every person aged between 55 and 64 (assumed labour market exit age) there is less than one person aged 15 to 24 (assumed labour market entry age). This ratio is projected to continue. In addition, this measure of future labour supply does not consider the complement of education, training, skills and experience which will be essential from a potential working population.  

This is where smart, timely and informed investment in education, training and skill development is required.  As a State, we have a window of opportunity to to get it right.  

There are a number of things that need to happen to capture this opportunity:

1) Recognise that ageing workforces will result in a transformation of the workforce from one which is older with lower levels of educational attainment but life long experience to a younger workforce with high(er) levels of educational attainment but lower levels of applied work experience.  
2) Industry, regions and organisations need to undertake extensive workforce planning to identify future demand, profile their workforce (by age, occupation and exit intentions) and identify critical job roles which have the potential to impact on growth and training capacity and then invest accordingly. 
3) Acknowledge that wealth creating industries may not necessarily be job creating industries. As such it is important not to ignore the domestic economy and the demand within the population.  There is already a deficit in the provision of care with an ageing population and the roll out of the NDIS will extend this deficit.  Care related jobs are real jobs, with real skills and real wages.  
4) Ensure investment in education and training is informed by demand - i.e. industry led with an employment outcome. This will increase efficiency in education and training investment and reduce the mismatch between educational attainment and job creation.
5) Recognise that social services, equity policy and 'second chance learners' also deserve an employment outcome opportunity.

Tasmania's ageing population is creating employment opportunities - both in replacement labour for ageing workforces and changing demographic demand - but the ability to capture this opportunity is dependent upon ensuring that investment in education and training matches changing employment demand.  Our youth are not round pegs who will fit into round holes - they need to be appropriately shaped.  
 

The theme of the Inglis Clark Centre Denison Debate held on 19 August 2014 was Tasmania’s population: on the cusp with a focus on being on the cusp of decline and the cusp of growth. 

The Australian Bureau of Statistics projects that, if current trends continue, Tasmania’s population will enter decline by 2047.  Reflecting this challenge, the Tasmanian Government has highlighted the need to develop policies aimed at achieving a population target of 650,000 by the year 2050.

Speakers included Premier Will Hodgman, Professor Graeme Hugo and myself.

My speech is attached below.