ABS data released today contained the first full period of interstate migration data for arrivals and departures by age and sex since the start of the pandemic in March 2020.

The data for the financial year ending June 2021 reveals a dramatic change in the age profile of those moving to Tasmania and those leaving Tasmania compared with the pre-pandemic profile (the average for 2017 to 2019 financial year data).

If this interstate migration age profile continues, it is likely to have serious implications for economic production and demographic reproduction for Tasmania.

While a quick summary of the interstate migration data reveals that Tasmania recorded a small net loss of 110 people for FY2021 - contrary to popular belief - driven by a 5.9% decline in arrivals to the state and an 8.8% increase in departures from the state, the devil is in the detail.

The age profile of interstate migration for FY 2021 is not comparable to previous years going back to 1998. The most comparable age profile is for 2002, prior to the economic growth period of the early- to mid-2000s.  

For FY2021, Tasmania recorded a reversal of pre-pandemic trends with significant net interstate migration losses for those aged 20 to 34, and smaller, comparable losses for those aged 15 to 19. A net loss was also recorded for those aged 35 to 39 and 70 and older, and zero for those aged 5 to 9, whereas net gains had been recorded for these age groups prior to the pandemic.  
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Net interstate migration gains were recorded for those aged 0 to 4 and 44 to 69, however at lower levels than prior to the pandemic, except for those aged 55 to 59 years which increased by 10%.

​These net figures can be better understood through analysis of interstate arrivals and departures.

Considerably higher numbers of Tasmanians aged 25 to 39 left the state during FY 2021, compared with the pre-pandemic average. A smaller increase in the number of Tasmanians aged 44 to 54 and those aged 70 or older was recorded.

​For arrivals, considerably fewer people moved to Tasmania in the age groups 0 to 29, compared with the pre-pandemic average. Smaller increases in arrivals were recorded for those aged 35 to 49, with larger increases for those aged 50 to 59 years. 

Compared with pre-pandemic levels, interstate departures increased substantially for all age groups 25 to 39, ranging from an increase of 43.1% for those aged 30 to 34 to 20.8% for those aged 25 to 29. A considerable percentage increase in departures was also recorded for those aged 70 or older, however in much smaller numbers. Other age groups recorded smaller declines or increases. 

Compared with pre-pandemic levels, interstate arrivals declined for all age groups 0 to 29, ranging from a decline of 28.3% for those aged 20 to 24 to 11% for those aged 15 to 19. Arrivals increased for all age groups aged 35 to 64, ranging from 18.7% for those aged 50 to 54 to 1.6% for those aged 45 to 49 years. 

These age profile movements will likely contribute to Tasmania’s rate of population ageing increasing considerably, particularly given that overseas migration – which historically placed downward pressure on our median age – has also reversed to negative net figures.

What the data does not tell us is why this occurred. Historically, the decision to relocate is made based on relative economic opportunities, housing affordability, and/or family reasons. Border closures may have also contributed to these changes during the FY 2021. Interestingly, research out of the Australian Government's Centre for Population finds that "Relative property prices in states and territories appear to have a greater influence than relative unemployment rates on interstate migration. A five per cent increase in property prices will increase the number of people migrating out of that state by 1.0 per cent."

While we continue to live during a period of a global pandemic, it is difficult to predict if this age profile pattern will continue. While this age profile data is for the FY2021 period only, interstate migration for the September 2021 quarter showed a further significant increase in net interstate migration loss, led by a 40% increase in interstate departures compared with the previous year. Interestingly, this occurred while both NSW and Victoria were in lockdown. Given this, further exploration of the reasons for Tasmanians leaving the state is warranted.

While a government spokesperson may suggest that this significant shift in the interstate migration age profile is the result of the pandemic and could not be foreseen, I suggest that this trend had begun prior to the pandemic and that it is the repercussion from failing to plan appropriately for the population growth that preceded the pandemic, but was potentially exacerbated by the pandemic. As such, the Tasmania Government’s Population Growth Strategy requires an urgent review. 

Today the ABS released population data for Australia, states and the territories relating to the September 2021 quarter.  
 
In this time of uncertainty, it is important that each quarterly release of population data is taken in context with what was happening in the country (and the rest of the world) during that time. There is little point looking at annual figures and trying to predict what may or may not happen into the future, as contrary to popular belief, we are still living during a global pandemic. The only thing constant at the moment is change.
 
Today's release relates to population change in the September quarter of 2021 - July, August and September. This is the period that NSW and Victoria were in lock down and the Delta strain of COVID-19 was taking hold. It was the time that the Premier made the comment "Tasmania is going to experience population growth well above the Treasury forecasts because interstate migrants are knocking on the door and knocking loudly. "
 
In one way he was right - people from interstate were knocking loudly on our door and more people arrived in Tasmania from interstate during the September 2021 quarter than ever before. But he was wrong in claiming that Tasmania is going to experience population growth well above the Treasury forecasts because he failed to consider that more people may also be leaving Tasmania to live interstate than ever before. And this is what  happened. Over 5200 people left Tasmania to live interstate during that quarter, the highest quarterly number of interstate departures on record, and nearly 1000 more than the previous highest number which was for the June 2021 quarter, also recorded during the pandemic. The fourth highest number of people leaving Tasmania was also during the pandemic in the December 2000 quarter. 
 
Both interstate and overseas migration recorded net losses during the September 2021 quarter. This means that Tasmania's population only grew due to natural increase - more births than deaths -  and that rate of growth is the lowest it has been this century.

I refer you back to my blog from December last year for explanation and commentary relating to the components of population change as it still applies. 
http://www.lisadenny.com.au/blog/the-borders-are-open-what-does-it-mean-for-tasmanias-population-growth

This submission to the Tasmanian Government's Literacy Advisory Panel’s Setting the Scene Community Consultation Paper relates specifically to the impact of learning disabilities on becoming literate. Learning disabilities are not identified, nor discussed, in the Setting the Scene paper.

The Tasmanian Government has a goal to achieve 100 percent literacy in the state, and within that aim, a target that all grade 7 students will start high school above the expected level of reading by no later than 2030. 

A number of Australian research studies indicate that between 10 to 16 per cent of students are perceived by their teachers to have learning difficulties that have support needs which extend beyond those normally addressed by classroom teachers under differentiated teaching practices.

Within the population of students with learning difficulties there is a smaller sub-set of students who show persistent and long-lasting learning impairments. These are identified as students with a learning disability. It is estimated that approximately 4 per cent of Australian students have a learning disability. In Tasmania, this is equivalent to around 4,360 students.

Students with a learning disability have a neurological disorder, rather than intellectual impairment, and present with varying degrees of unexpected under-achievement in one or more areas of literacy; reading, spelling or writing, and/or numeracy, 80 per cent of whom struggle with reading.

Each of these children have the right to receive the appropriate support and interventions to enable them to become literate adults and participate fully in our society and economy, as per the Tasmanian Government’s goal.

To achieve the Tasmanian Government’s aim that all grade 7 students start high school above the expected level of reading by no later than 2030, children with learning disabilities will need appropriate intervention and support at the intensity required.

This submission proposes a policy solution and capacity building program to support children with learning disabilities become literate as well as supporting the educators in the system and the Tasmanian Government achieve its target. 

The borders are open! And, according to the Premier, Tasmania is going to experience population growth well above the Treasury forecasts because interstate migrants are ‘knocking on the door and knocking loudly’.

However, contrary to popular belief, interstate migration to Tasmania is actually only one of six factors which influence population change and any potential growth. The other five are births, deaths, interstate migration from Tasmania to other parts of Australia, overseas migration to Tasmania and overseas migration from Tasmania to another country.

ABS population data released today reveals that Tasmania experienced population growth of 0.17% for the year to June 2021, compared with 1.12% for the previous 12 months, and considerably lower than that forecast by the Tasmanian Treasury (0.6%). This growth was almost entirely sourced from natural increase (more births than deaths). Net overseas migration was negative for the first time on record, offset slightly by a very small net interstate migration gain of 49 persons for the year. 

In terms of births, Tasmania’s total fertility rate (TFR - the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime) is well below the population replacement rate (2.1) and had been declining steadily since around 2008, after a brief increase. The number of children born had also been declining steadily due to the proportion and number of women of reproductive age in Tasmania also declining. Even so, for 2020, Tasmania’s TFR remained relatively steady at 1.77 and higher than all other states. 2020 saw a slight increase (58) in the number of babies born, despite a slight decrease in the TFR, which is indicative of an increase in the number of women of reproductive ages in Tasmania - largely explained by a shift in the interstate migration profile of recent years. t
 
While many commentators predict a further decline in the number of births and the fertility rate following the pandemic, as has been the case in historical economic recessions, COVID-19 was a health crisis first, rather than an economic one. While birth data for pandemic-conceived babies will not be available until late 2022, early anecdotal evidence and analysis of obstetrics and Medicare data suggests that there may be a short term increase in births throughout 2021 and 2022. This will contribute to increasing the population and also slowing the rate of population ageing. This is evident in TFR data for 30 June 2021, with an increase to 1.8 compared with 1.72 for the previous 12 months. However, data also shows a decline in the number of marriages throughout the pandemic so far. Given that marriage usually precedes first births, it is reasonable to assume that there may be a delay to starting parenthood for many couples, which may or may not be recuperated at a later date. Unless, of course, COVID-19 also reverses this historical life event pattern so that the first child arrives prior to marriage!

In terms of deaths, the pandemic forced us to be more conscious of our health and its impact on others’ health. Stay at home orders, physical distancing, washing hands and sanitising regularly contributed to lowering the infections circulating our community, particularly influenza. This resulted in a decline in both the death rate and the number of deaths in the state, particularly in the older age groups. This also contributes to population growth due to increasing natural increase (births minus deaths), and, in turn, contributes to the rate of ageing of our population.

In terms of overseas migration, immigration to Tasmania all but ceased during the pandemic, except for Australians returning home. Emigration from Tasmania increased considerably throughout the pandemic, likely the result of the large number of temporary visa holders such as international students, skilled migrants and other temporary workers, returning to their home countries due to the lack of support provided to them by the Australian Government during the pandemic. The number of migrants leaving Tasmania far exceeded the number of Australians returning to Tasmania from overseas, resulting in an overall net decline in overseas migration for Tasmania to 30 June 2021 for the first time on record of 444 persons. Prior to the pandemic the considerable growth in net overseas migration for Tasmania, and the age profile of those migrants, contributed to both population growth and slowing the rate of population ageing. Even with the opening of borders to Australia, it is unlikely that Tasmania will experience the same level of overseas migration in the short to medium term.

Which brings us to interstate migration for Tasmania. Historically, interstate migration has been the component of population change with the greatest influence not only on whether the state’s population grows or declines, but also on its rate of population ageing due to the age profile of the interstate migrants arriving in or leaving Tasmania. Net interstate migration is the difference between arrivals to Tasmania and the departures from Tasmania. In the five years prior to the pandemic, around 13,500 people arrived in Tasmania while around 12,000 left on average each year, leaving an annual net gain of around 1,500 people.
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For the year to June 2021, Tasmania recorded a net interstate migration gain of 49 persons. In that period, 13,735 people arrived to live in Tasmania and 13,686 people left to live interstate. While the number of people arriving in Tasmania increased considerably compared with the previous 12 months, the number of people leaving Tasmania to live elsewhere was the highest since 2004, a trend that began in 2015. 

As well as contributing to whether or not the population grows or declines, each of these six components of population change also contribute to the age profile of the Tasmanian population and whether or not our rate of ageing slows or increases. Regardless, given the mix of factors contributing to our growing population, it will also always be an ageing one.

Going forward as we continue to respond to the challenges that the COVID-19 pandemic presents us, it is difficult to predict what the impact on Tasmania's population growth will be, even with open borders. Critically, population change is much more complex than just interstate migrants knocking on our door. The decision to move interstate or overseas is a personal one, to or from Tasmania, and is influenced by a multitude of factors, as is whether or not to have a child (and how many to have). As we consider the future needs of our population, we need to appropriately plan for both opportunities and challenges in the context of all six components of population change.

NB this ABS data is for the period up to 30 June 2021, prior to the NSW, Victoria and ACT COVID-19 outbreaks and subsequent lockdowns, and prior to the comment made by the Premier.

Despite a similar proportion starting their formal schooling in Tasmania ‘developmentally vulnerable’ to those in Australia, the Tasmanian education system produces considerably lower levels of educational attainment compared with the national average by the time the respective cohorts have completed their schooling.

Analysis of NAPLAN data over a 10-year period shows that the literacy and numeracy skills of Tasmanian students as a cohort have declined as they progress through their schooling from lower primary to upper primary and to secondary schooling. This is despite students being regularly identified through a range of assessments as either at risk or below the expected standard throughout their schooling.

In 2012, around 1 in 5 (21.5%) Tasmanian children in their first year of school were identified in the Australian Early Development Census as being ‘developmentally vulnerable’ (1,308 students), similar to the proportion nationally. At least a further 15.6% were considered ‘developmentally at risk’.

By 2021, when this cohort was in grade 9 (around 6,634 students), 1,891 (28.5%) could not read above* the level expected to engage in the wider curriculum, 2,753 (41.5%) could not express themselves in written form above the level expected and 1,552 (23.4%) were not numerate.

Compared with 10 years prior (the 2011 grade 9 cohort), 2021 grade 9 students are considerably less proficient in literacy and numeracy knowledge and skills. The 2021 results also show an alarming decline in the high proficiency bands (9 and 10) and an equally alarming increase in the proportion below the expected standard in the range of literacy skills.

While policy priorities exist to improve both retention to year 12 and educational attainment in Tasmania, the implications of low and declining literacy and numeracy skills for successful school completion as well as participating in further education and training and securing meaningful work are dire, particularly for boys and those from low socio-economic backgrounds.

Research has consistently found that results of year 9 NAPLAN tests across the five learning areas – reading, numeracy, writing, spelling and grammar – are strong predictors of year 11 and 12 performance. While writing is the best predictor of successful school completion, spelling, grammar and punctuation are the best predictors of writing competence. Yet, in 2021, 2 in 5 Tasmanian grade 9 students do not have the writing skills above the level expected.
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For those year 9 students from a lower socio-economic background (using a proxy of highest level of educational attainment for parents and/or the skill level of their occupation) around two thirds do not have the expected writing ability which predicts successful school completion (64.3% for those whose parents have completed year 11, and 67.4% for those whose parents were not employed in the previous 12 months). 

While in the past, those will poorer literacy and numeracy skills have been able to secure employment in lower skill or manual work and/or pursue vocational education and training, these jobs are either transforming or disappearing with the infiltration of the technological revolution into work and life. As a result, the demand for strong foundational and occupation-specific language and literacy (communication) and numeracy skills is ever-increasing across the skill spectrum for all industry sectors and in a more highly-skilled, technology driven economy and society.

In its Workforce Development Needs 2018 report, the Australian Industry Group found that 99 per cent of employers are affected in some way by low levels of literacy and numeracy in their workforce with 39 per cent highly affected. The employers reported dissatisfaction with the use of English and basic numeracy and literacy levels of over one-fifth of school leaver workforce entrants. The most significant effects on the business were cited as poor completion of workplace documents and reports followed by teamwork and communication problems. The impact of these low levels of literacy and numeracy include time and/or material wastage, unsafe work practices, financial loss, teamwork challenges, and lack of confidence. Furthermore, due to a lack of specific workplace literacy and numeracy programs, employers are increasing their internal resources to militate the effect of the problem in the workplace, at considerable cost.

While the business community actively expresses dissatisfaction with the outcomes from vocational education and training in Tasmania, particularly by the public provider; TasTAFE, its voice is absent in the need to improve language, literacy and numeracy outcomes in our schools. If the Tasmanian schooling system ensured that all school leavers met the expected levels of literacy and numeracy, TasTAFE and other VET providers would be able to focus on delivering industry and occupation specific skills, education and training, rather than on skills which should have been acquired in school.  

The cost of poor language, literacy and numeracy skills of school leavers are borne over the long term not just by the individual themselves, but by all Tasmanians, the economy and society. Low literary and numeracy affects the type of jobs we can offer, the industries we can attract, support and sustain and the level and distribution of revenue for public services and infrastructure.
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These life-long- and long-term costs to the economy and society of Tasmanians not acquiring the necessary language, literacy and numeracy skills throughout their schooling is substantial, but it is also entirely preventable.
 

 
*Students who are below the national minimum standard have not achieved the learning outcomes expected for their year level. They are at risk of being unable to progress satisfactorily at school without targeted intervention.
Students who are performing at the national minimum standard may also require additional assistance to enable them to achieve their potential.

**An edited version of this blog was printed as a Talking Point article in the Mercury Newspaper on 21 December 2021

The full InSummary report analysing NAPLAN data for a 10 year period is available here

Persistent suggestions that parental attitudes to education in Tasmania are to blame for poor engagement and educational attainment by young Tasmanians are disappointing and frustrating.

The only comprehensive study of Tasmanian parents’ attitudes to education I am aware of was commissioned by the TCCI in 2008. The study did not find that Tasmanian parents – the working majority - do not value higher education, it found that they fear it. They fear higher education because they believed there are no jobs in their community or Tasmania which require higher education, and therefore pursuing higher education would mean their children leave Tasmania for employment opportunities elsewhere, threatening the family and community fabric which working Tasmanians value so highly.

The report also found that the working majority of Tasmanians valued hard work which they defined as physical, blue collar or service work rather than intellectual work.  This working majority had a high work ethic and measured success as working hard in their community, looking to their community for future opportunities.

The study also found that the working majority did not associate higher levels of education with the ability to find employment in their community, therefore they did not deem it necessary. The report found that the working majority were motivated by their personal environment of community, lifestyle, family and friends rather than more successful careers.

Fast forward 13 years, and the jobs landscape has changed. Of the current jobs in Tasmania, less than a third require a bachelor degree or higher qualification, while more than two in five (44%) require no more than a certificate II.

Not only has the Tasmanian workforce been polarising over time -  growth has been in high and low skill jobs, the number of jobs considered to be entry level, requiring certificate III or IV vocational qualifications for trade and technical jobs has been declining, now around 12% of the total workforce. In addition, these jobs are experiencing changes in content and skill requirements, evolving from physical labour dominated work, to the need for higher level numeracy, literacy and technological skills, not previously considered necessary.  

In its The Modern Worker, A Guide to What Employers Want, the Business Council of Australia outlines the minimum capability requirements for trade and technical jobs which include occupation specific reading comprehension, writing and oral communication skills; numeracy capabilities of measuring and calculation, data recording and interpretation and cost estimation; and extend to include analytical and digital capabilities as well as the generic ‘soft skills’ which receive so much attention.

A range of current research reports also indicate that young people today are aspiring for jobs they have little chance of securing. These reports also confirm that community remains a strong factor in education and work decision making processes, particularly for young men, yet our education and social systems are not preparing our young people for the future of work.

Historically, students who have struggled academically have been encouraged to pursue vocational education and training and trade or services related employment rather than higher education and associated opportunities. With expanding skill requirements in VET related jobs, the polarisation of the workforce and the shift to services-oriented work, many young Tasmanians can no longer rely on gaining meaningful employment in hard, physical work to sustain their much-valued lifestyles in their community.

Given the increasing literacy and numeracy demands across all occupational skill levels, whether vocational or professional jobs, we need to ensure that all Tasmanian students meet the expected benchmarks for reading, writing and numeracy by grade 7 so that they are able to engage in the wider school curriculum and successfully complete their schooling to pursue other opportunities.

In 2019, the latest available data, of the students starting grade 7, 1 in 5 were at or below the National Minimum Standard for reading and numeracy, 1 in 4 were at or below the Standard for spelling as well as grammar and punctuation and 1 in 3 (34.9%) were at or below the Standard for writing, meaning they were unable to express their thoughts, knowledge or understanding in written form with the appropriate structure, vocabulary and cohesion – critical skills for participating in the wider school curriculum and future employment.

Critically, for those students whose parents were in low skilled jobs or not in paid work at all, over half did not exceed the expected Standard for writing.  Over a third of those with parents in low skilled jobs did not exceed the reading or numeracy benchmarks, while less than half of those with no working parents met the benchmarks.

Jobs have changed and skills within jobs have changed but the aspirations of our young people have not and connection to community remains strong. Strong work ethic and values also remain, as do aspirations to contribute meaningfully to society, however, our young Tasmanians need much stronger educational foundations to achieve their aspirations. These skills and knowledge sit squarely in the responsibility of our education system, not with the parents who have not benefited from a good education themselves.

If we want our young Tasmanians to successfully complete their schooling, pursue higher education and aspire to higher-skilled jobs, then we also need to be better at creating those higher-skilled jobs in Tasmania and our regions. To do that, we need vision and a strategic industry policy.
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See more about the impact of lack of supply of jobs on educational aspirations here.
 
For more on the values, attitudes to education and career aspirations of young people see this report for the Tasmanian Seafood Industry Council).
 
An edited version of this Opinion Piece was published as a Talking Point in the Mercury on 14 July 2021. 

Around 4 per cent of Australian students have a learning disability caused by a neurological disorder, rather than intellectual impairment, and present with varying degrees of unexpected under-achievement in one or more areas of literacy; reading, spelling or writing, and/or numeracy, 80 per cent of whom struggle reading.

In Tasmania, that equates to 4,360 students.

Neurological disorders present as persistent and long-lasting learning impairments which require educational support needs extending beyond those normally addressed by classroom teachers under differentiated teaching practices, governed by the reasonable adjustments framework within the Disability Standards for Education 2005.

​In Australia, there is no clear definition of learning disabilities which has implications for policy development, resourcing and effective teaching practices.

This lack of definition and understanding originated from a 1979 report by the Australian House of Representatives Select Committee on Specific Learning Difficulties which determined there was insufficient evidence that learning difficulties experienced by students were intrinsic in origin, a requirement for the use of the term disabilities. The committee therefore recommended the use of the term ‘learning difficulties’ to refer to students who experience difficulties in reading, spelling, writing and/or mathematics despite a terminological difference between ‘experiencing learning difficulties and having learning disabilities’, and without regard for a specific diagnosis (Elkins, 2007).

Even so, the Disability Discrimination Act 1992, which is designed to protect people with disability from discrimination in access to education, includes in its definition of disability ‘a disorder or malfunction that results in the person learning differently from a person without the disorder or malfunction’. More recently, significant advancements in cognitive science research have contributed to expanding the understanding of the cognitive processes of learning and the underlying causes of learning disabilities.  A contemporary definition has since been proposed, ‘learning disabilities should be viewed a subset of learning difficulties that are neurological in origin, permanent in nature and resistant to intervention and not the result of below average intelligence, English as a second language (ESL), sensory impairment, emotional or behaviour problems, economic disadvantage and inadequate or inappropriate teaching’.

In Australia, the lack of evidence for effective invention for those with learning disabilities may be attributable to a number of factors. There is a growing body of evidence which finds the intervention programs used for those with learning difficulties are ineffective. Several evaluations of the predominate program for reading difficulties in Australia, Reading Recovery, found no evidence for positive effects on children’s reading achievement over the long term, and a negative impact in the medium term. Further, a review of 20 intervention programs used in Australia by Dr Kate de Bruin for Catholic Education Melbourne found that only one program had a large and robust evidence base supporting its use, seven programs were either ineffective or unsupported by sufficient evidence to produce the desired outcomes and that eight interventions incorporated inefficient instructional practices (either completely or partially) which are not aligned with the consistent research findings about the best ways to teach literacy.

An alternative to differentiation at the individual level is the whole-class Response to Intervention (RTI) model. A multi-tiered model of instruction based on need, RTI aims to improve educational outcomes for all students through the early identification of students who require additional support and to direct appropriate resourcing and intensity of instruction to meet the educational needs of the student. The RTI model also enables the identification of students with learning disabilities, before they fail. Tiers of instructional approaches operationalise the RTI model, supported by on-going screening and progress monitoring assessment. Beginning with whole-class core instruction which meets the needs of at least 80 per cent of the class (Tier 1), RTI then increases instructional intensity for students whose screening data identifies they are below expected benchmarks. Tier 2 interventions supplement Tier 1 core instruction with the aim that the support is targeted to specific areas of skill, usually in small groups, to support learning progress and return the student/s to Tier 1. Tier 3 intervention is provided to those students who do not respond to Tier 2 intervention, and require individualised support with an appropriately qualified educator, typically one-to-one with high levels of intensity and frequency. Critically, the RTI model is only effective if Tier 1 instruction provides for a strong foundation of evidence-based teaching instruction, otherwise too many students require the resource intensive interventions at Tiers 2 or 3.
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All students with learning disabilities have the right to access the curriculum at the same level as their peers. Given students with learning disabilities have an underlying neurological disorder impacting their cognitive processes, the key to supporting them achieve their educational potential is through evidence-based practice. Structured literacy refers to the content and methods or principles of instruction for teaching how to read, write and use language in an explicit, systematic and cumulative manner. Structured literacy includes; phonological awareness – particularly phonemic awareness, (systematic, synthetic) phonics, fluency, vocabulary and comprehension, as well as oral language. This works best within a whole-class RTI model with strong Tier 1 instruction, as it provides for regular screening and progress monitoring to inform evidence-based teaching practices and required intervention and intensity for all students. 

An edited version of this Opinion Piece was published in the Mercury on 23 June 2021.

For over 20 years I have worked in roles in which the primary objective was to improve the economic and social outcomes for Tasmanians. Prior to that, I was a teacher of economics and business studies and, before that, employed in financial services.

These roles in public, private and academic spheres have been diverse, interesting, challenging and confronting and have provided me the opportunity to gain a deep insight into not just the statistical workings of the Tasmanian economy but also the intertwined social, political and cultural fabric that influences our policy-making in Tasmania.
I have researched, written and presented extensively about Tasmania’s economic, demographic, educational and social performance over the years and the structural impediments underpinning that performance, as have many others. I’ve provided a plethora of science-based evidence to both warrant and inform policy intervention, as have many others, and I have delivered it using different narrative styles, yet, the reality is, little has changed over those two-plus decades and, for a number of indicators, the situation has deteriorated.

I detail Tasmania’s four key structural challenges; industry structure, population change, the workforce and educational outcomes and their relationship in this presentation which is essentially a culmination of my work over the past 15 years or so.

While the government of the day may laud the current successes of our economy, even in a post-COVID environment, the reality is that Tasmanians’ living standards, measured as Gross State Product (GSP) per capita, are the lowest of any state or territory and are lower than in the 1990s, in relative terms, around 20 percent lower than the average Australian.

While successive governments assert that its aim is to improve the living standards of Tasmanians, it’s overarching policy framework does little to improve the productivity of our economy, which is what ultimately leads to sustainable and ongoing improved living standards for all.

Suggestions that ‘demography is destiny’ underplay the import of economic and social policy in shaping our long-term future. Our destiny is not predetermined by our demography. In fact, our (socio-economic) demography today is the outcome of policy decisions made in the past. And our (socio-economic) demography in the future will be shaped by policies of today. So, really, our destiny is ours to shape (including our socio-economic demography destiny).

All commentators, including myself, correlate Tasmania’s economic and social underperformance with our relatively poor educational outcomes, which in turn impact our industry structure, workforce and the potential for improved productivity.

Which then poses the question of why, when there is ample evidence of where our deficiencies are and what to do about it and how, is there a reluctance to improve?

In 2013, Jonathan West asked the question “What’s wrong with Tasmania, really? The Obstacles to Progress” in a special issue of The Griffith Review; Tasmania: the Tipping Point.

In his essay, he asserted that

“Tasmania has developed a way of life, a mode of doing things, a demographic, a culture and associated economy that reproduces underachievement, generation after generation.

The reality is that Tasmania has bred a dominant social coalition that blocks most proposals to improve.
Problems and challenges are debated endlessly, with no resolution. Most discussion avoids mention of the uncomfortable truths at the source of under-performance.

Ultimately, Tasmania doesn’t change because its people actually don’t really want to.”

He went on to say; “I’ve become convinced that the underlying reason for this is that the Tasmanian community actually does not want government to overcome these obstacles – or at least, it does not want it enough to sacrifice existing amenity for those obstacles to be removed.”

He suggested that the dark side of Tasmania’s enviable emphasis on a laid-back lifestyle is a ‘culture of low aspiration’ and that while we have a ‘substantial underclass’, there was no personal incentive for the ‘smaller, comfortable, government-dependent middle class’ to improve the outcomes for the underclass through greater educational attainment. He claimed that this ‘government-dependent middle class’ ‘valued above most other concerns a modest, comfortable lifestyle, the kind that steady government employment guarantees. The ease with which it had become possible in Tasmania to reach this income level and enjoy material security meant that there was little incentive for more education’.

At the time, this accusation from an ‘outsider’ who suggested that only ‘outsiders’ could change the trajectory for Tasmania and Tasmanians, was not well received. I wrote a response to his essay in The Conversation, and in doing so, it made me reflect critically on his observations, which I continue to do so today.

West’s observations were inspired by the need for greater economic development and growth in the form of the traded, market sector to improve the state’s performance, based on the false assumption of the current neo-liberal economics standpoint that a greater proportion of private sector capital and investment in the economy would eventually ‘trickle down’ to improve the socio-economic outcomes for the ‘underclass’. However, he also claimed that Tasmanians placed very little value on education, drawing from a study undertaken by the TCCI in the mid-2000s as part of the Education Transforms project. This study concluded that as working-class Tasmanians placed a higher value on their community and lifestyle than work, they feared that if their children pursued further education, they would have to leave their family, the community or Tasmania and as such, didn’t encourage completion of schooling by their children nor the pursuit of further education.

I discuss the problem of education in Tasmania in more detail in this presentation, particularly from a demand perspective, which is also ultimately impacted by a supply issue.

The uncomfortable reality is that Tasmania persistently underperforms the national average in all economic indicators; GSP, employment engagement and productivity, which can be directly attributable to considerably lower educational attainment.

1. Tasmania’s employment participation rate is the lowest in Australia (partly explained by a larger proportion of Tasmania’s population being over the age of 65, considered the end of working life age);
2. Tasmanians work fewer hours per week than the national average, reflecting the greater prevalence of part-time work in Tasmania than elsewhere and have the highest level of underemployment (want to work more hours);
3. For each hour that they worked, Tasmanians with jobs contribute less to GSP than the average Australian, that is the labour productivity of Tasmanians is considerably lower than the labour productivity of Australians; and
4. Tasmania’s workforce is dominated by five low productivity industries (health care and social assistance, retail trade, accommodation and food services, education and training and public administration and safety), making up over half of the total workforce (52%) and contributing to 38 per cent of GSP. Whereas these 5 industries make up around 45 per cent of the Australian workforce and contribute 28 per cent to GSP.

This poor economic performance and lack of diverse and high productivity industry sectors can be attributable to Tasmania’s poor educational outcomes across all developmental stages of life.

A recent report from the Mitchell Institute, Educational opportunity in Australia 2020: Who succeeds and who misses out found that, nationally, about one-fifth to one-third of young people are behind or missing out in Australia’s education systems. The report’s indicators cover the various stages of learning and development from early childhood through to early adulthood to assess how well Australia’s systems are doing in preparing young people with the lifelong knowledge and skills needed to contribute successfully and meaningfully to social, economic and cultural life. The report found that the ‘results are at odds with our national goals for education’.

The report also found that Tasmanians fare worse than the national average in all but 7 of the 23 indicators for all four stages of learning and development. Of the total 23 indicators, Tasmania ranks 7th or 8th (out of 8) in 12.
The recent Productivity Commission Report on Government Services concluded the same.

While Tasmania’s apparent school retention rate has improved since the extension of high schools to year 11 and 12 (74.3%), successful completion of year 12 has not. Around 58 per cent of Tasmanian school leavers successfully completed year 12, 14 percentage points less than the national rate. The attainment rate gap is much higher for low SES students (16 percentage points) who make up over half of our school leavers, than students from medium (10 percentage points) or high (9 percentage points) socio-economic areas.

Further, students from low SES backgrounds in Vic, SA and WA have higher Y12 attainment rates than students from high SES backgrounds in Tasmania. And, students from “remote” or “very remote” areas of NSW, Victoria, SA and WA have higher Y12 attainment rates than Tasmanian students from inner or outer regional classifications e.g. Greater Hobart and Launceston.

Young people’s successful transition from compulsory schooling to education, training and employment is particularly important for fulfilling life opportunities, with a positive relationship between completion of year 12 and subsequent engagement. Sadly, however, while nationally in 2020, 69.3 per cent of 17 to 24 year old school leavers were fully participating in education, training and/or employment (with proportions higher for those completing year 12 compared to year 11 or below) it was a different story for Tasmanian school leavers. Around 2 in 5 school leavers aged 17 to 24 (60.5%) were engaged fully in education, training and/or employment.

This poor educational attainment and engagement in further education or training and employment can be further linked to poor language and literacy achievement in Tasmania, from as young as early childhood.

Around one in five children in Tasmania start school every year developmentally vulnerable across five indicators: physical, social, emotional, language and communication. An additional one in 10 are at risk of being developmentally vulnerable.

Further to that, around one in five of our grade 7 students start the year at or below the NAPLAN National Minimum Standard (NMS) for reading which represents a very low level of reading skill.

For those grade seven students whose parents’ highest level of completed schooling was year 11 or below, around two in five students (40 per cent) are at or below the NMS for reading.

In terms of comparison by state and territory, the percentage of Tasmanian grade 7 students who are at or above the NMS for reading is lower, and statistically significantly different, than most other states and territories.

Those who are not reading proficiently by grade seven are highly likely to struggle with the demands of the wider curriculum and are more likely to not complete school, leading to poorer health and well-being over their lifetimes.
So, while our lifestyle is the envy of the nation for so many Tasmanians, it’s a point in time perspective. Less understood however, is that while we may be enjoying the lifestyle on offer now, this attitude of undervaluing improving educational outcomes for ALL Tasmanians will have longer term consequences, including for the ‘government-dependent middleclass’.

Why does it matter that Tasmanians have such poor educational outcomes and don’t value pursuing further education? Why does it matter for those who have completed school and been fortunate enough to secure work and a reliable income and currently enjoy the Tasmanian lifestyle?

It matters because it affects what sort of industry and business we can attract to the state. A skilled and educated workforce is critical to attract and retain investment and improve productivity.

It matters because the type of industries and businesses we have in the state affects the types of jobs that Tasmanians can get and what they are paid for their work.

It matters because our young people, our children and grandchildren, have limited career pathways to aspire to.
It matters because for those Tasmanians who do successfully complete year 12 and pursue further education, many are unable to secure meaningful work at their level of qualification and/or field of study and either need to leave the state to find work, or work at a lower level of skill in Tasmania.

It matters it as without the availability of higher skilled jobs it may affect where our children live and work and where our grandchildren are born and grow up.

If our children do stay in Tasmania, it will affect the type of job they can get, the income they can secure and whether or not they can afford to buy their own home.

It matters because it may affect when, and if, our children and grandchildren are able to return to live in Tasmania – the best place to raise a family - and usually depends on whether they are able to gain commensurate work in the State.

It matters because as we age and our independence decreases, and our need for assistance to go to appointments or do the shopping increases, we may not have readily available access to help and support if our children and grandchildren no longer live in the state and we will become dependent on (already stretched) public services to provide that assistance.

It matters because it will affect how long we have to wait to get a shoulder, knee or hip replacement, our glaucoma or cataracts treated, or whether we can get treatment for our illnesses and other medical needs in Tasmania (if they are even available in Tasmania) and how long we wait for a room in an aged care facility.

Growing up my parents would often say to my sister and I, ‘the greatest gift we can give you is a good education’. While my sister and I would tire of hearing this, they were right and we have both benefited from that education, and continue to do so. My work over the decades has shown what is possible for those who receive the gift of a good education, and what the lifelong outcomes are for those who do not. Not all parents can give the gift of a good education, nor should they be the ones who are expected to, particularly if they haven’t received one themselves. A good education is actually a human right to be provided by, at minimum, the public education institutional framework.

We ALL have a vested interested in improving the educational outcomes of ALL Tasmanians, and their subsequent participation in the economy and society.

Tasmania has not yet reached peak population ageing and the point of population (natural) decline, which is projected to occur around 2030 as the last of the baby boomers turn 65 years of age.

From this point, it will be difficult to recover economically and socially, and will impact on our much-valued way of life in Tasmania. We have the opportunity to shape our destiny, starting with a clear, shared vision that includes improving our educational attainment and participation in the economy (supply) which is aligned with strategic industry policy (demand).

Read more at www.lisadenny.com.au

This OpEd was first published in The Mercury on 14 April 2020.

THE white economy is an emerging and evolving term used to define the approach to leverage the challenges of an ageing population into economic and social opportunities whilst meeting the needs of an older population. Population ageing is an unprecedented, global scenario. For several decades, governments all over the world have been grappling with how to manage the fiscal implications of supporting more older people from a diminishing revenue base.

Like population ageing, the COVID-19 virus is an unprecedented scenario on a global scale. The difference is that rather than unfolding gradually over time, falsely allowing policy makers to believe they have time on their side, the global pandemic is fast and furious and needs an immediate response across multiple facets.

In Tasmania, the threat of the COVID-19 virus has instigated an impressive, tactical response; a call to arms to flatten the curve and build the health sector capacity to manage the inevitable spread of the disease into the community. However, this response comes from a very low base; an underfunded and under-resourced health system which failed to invest in, and cater for, the changing health and care needs of an increasingly older population with relatively poorer socio-demographic backgrounds. Most governmental responses to population ageing have been to grow the economy with a focus on population growth to increase the revenue base as a counter to the fiscal challenges. However, this approach largely ignores the fact that the number of people getting older still increases. More than one in five Tasmanians are aged over 65, and while migration has temporarily slowed the rate of ageing over the past couple of years, the likelihood of migration to Tasmania in the short to medium-term is slight.

As a result, our population will age rapidly.

Unlike the silver economy — another term used to describe the opportunities associated with an older population, but focused on the changing consumption patterns of older generations, active ageing through increased recreation and leisure, travel and tourism, as well as property, finance and insurance services — the white economy encompasses a new collective for economic growth based on the increasing demand for aged-focused needs; an ecosystem of products and services for older people.

More specifically, the white economy refers to “products, services and activities related to healthcare and care including the dependent, disabled and elderly”.

These products, services and activities include meeting the existential needs of older people, older consumers, older employees and the needs of employers and organisations providing and servicing older people’s needs.

White economy initiatives include investing in health care and its workforce, including doctors, nurses and other health care specialists, to adapt to the needs of an ageing population, alongside new technologies and types of services, which is fundamentally different to what is understood to be mainstream healthcare.

The increasing demand for health care services resulting from ageing may include shifting the focus of health care from prevention and curing to one that emphasises management of symptoms and the variability of symptoms.

Of critical importance, however, is that the white economy extends beyond just the provision of services, to transport and logistics, research and development and the expansion of such initiatives such as telemedicine, remote monitoring and rehabilitation, as well as career upskilling.

As already seen in the tactical response to COVID-19, there has been substantial investment in the capacity of the health sector in Tasmania, including statewide and regional response units, large-scale acquisition of equipment and recruitment of staff.

We have also seen the rapid response of businesses to address new product demands and supply constraints; hand sanitiser being produced by gin distilleries, point-of-contact clear protection screens manufactured by a sail-maker and marine trimming company; and ventilators being fabricated using 3D printing technology by a former automobile parts manufacturer. These are all examples of initiatives within a white economy framework.

As the immediate threat of COVID-19 to the Tasmanian community becomes more known than unknown, the tactical response to increasing the capacity of our health care sector needs to transition to a strategic, longer-term response.

Tasmania’s population will age rapidly with a reduction in migration to the state, and will be dispersed around the state.

The opportunity for economic recovery and meeting the needs of our population rests with the white economy in the short, medium and long-term.

Tasmania already has a long history of health innovation from which the white economy can be built.

The humidicrib was invented in Tasmania, as were elevatable hospital beds and baths. Mader International already manufactures specialised transport equipment in the North-West, including ambulances, 4x4 patient transport, as well as medical and rescue equipment and ambulance consultancy services.

E-health technological services are also emerging.

Increasing the capacity of our health sector over the longer-term; investing, identifying, prioritising and streamlining services around the state, as well as providing logistics and transport services, will provide much needed economic stimulus over the years to come. So too will incentivising research and development for product and service innovation in the white economy as Tasmania recovers from the unprecedented, global scenario of COVID-19 and provides for the ongoing unprecedented, global scenario of population ageing.
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As the visitor economy is to the tourism sector, the white economy is to the healthcare and social assistance industry, and the longer-term viability of our state and our lifestyle.

The Mitchell Institute, Educational opportunity in Australia 2020: Who succeeds and who misses out found that, nationally, about one-fifth to one-third of young people are behind or missing out in our education systems. The report’s indicators cover the various stages of learning and development from early childhood through to early adulthood to assess how well our systems are doing in preparing our young people with the lifelong knowledge and skills needed to contribute successfully and meaningfully to social, economic and cultural life. 

The report found that the ‘results are at odds with our national goals for education’. 

The report also provides the ability for a state/territory comparison to be made across all indicators for each stage of learning and development. 

Key Tasmanian indicators:

• In the five entry to school learning and development indicators Tasmania ranks 4th in three, 5th in one, and 6th in one.
• In the six middle school years learning and development indicators, Tasmania ranks 1st in one, 3rd in one, 5th in one, 7th in two and 8th in one.
• In the six senior school years learning and development indicators, Tasmania ranks 6th in one, 7th in three and 8th in two.
• In the six early adulthood years learning and development indicators, Tasmania ranks 2nd in one, 3rd in one, 7th in one and 8th in three.

 
See this table for more detail.