At a State level, the ABS considerably under-estimated the size and growth rate of Tasmania’s Estimated Resident Population (ERP) between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census so that the rebased population is almost 30,000 larger than estimated. Over the five year period, the population grew 9.7% rather than the 4.3% the pre-rebased ERP suggested.
However, for the year to 2021, the growth rate declined to 0.8%. The slower growth can be attributable to policy measures associated with the Government's response to the COVID-19 global pandemic, however, growth had slowed prior to the onset of the pandemic. This reduced the average growth rate since 2016 to 1.5% per annum.
Compared with the ABS population projections from 2013 and 2018, the Tasmanian population is growing at a much faster rate than either of the high series (Series A) projected
The ABS under-estimated the annual growth rates for all LGAs by an average of 0.7 percentage points per annum.
Smaller coastal or lifestyle LGAs and periphery LGAs recorded higher average growth rates than the more populated LGAs, however, remote and small LGAs recorded slower growth rates.
- 4 LGAs recorded population decline in the year to 2021 (Flinders Island, George Town, Hobart and King Island)
- 1 LGA recorded population decline since 2016 (Flinders Island)