The borders are open! And, according to the Premier, Tasmania is going to experience population growth well above the Treasury forecasts because interstate migrants are ‘knocking on the door and knocking loudly’.

However, contrary to popular belief, interstate migration to Tasmania is actually only one of six factors which influence population change and any potential growth. The other five are births, deaths, interstate migration from Tasmania to other parts of Australia, overseas migration to Tasmania and overseas migration from Tasmania to another country.

ABS population data released today reveals that Tasmania experienced population growth of 0.17% for the year to June 2021, compared with 1.12% for the previous 12 months, and considerably lower than that forecast by the Tasmanian Treasury (0.6%). This growth was almost entirely sourced from natural increase (more births than deaths). Net overseas migration was negative for the first time on record, offset slightly by a very small net interstate migration gain of 49 persons for the year. 

In terms of births, Tasmania’s total fertility rate (TFR - the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime) is well below the population replacement rate (2.1) and had been declining steadily since around 2008, after a brief increase. The number of children born had also been declining steadily due to the proportion and number of women of reproductive age in Tasmania also declining. Even so, for 2020, Tasmania’s TFR remained relatively steady at 1.77 and higher than all other states. 2020 saw a slight increase (58) in the number of babies born, despite a slight decrease in the TFR, which is indicative of an increase in the number of women of reproductive ages in Tasmania - largely explained by a shift in the interstate migration profile of recent years. t
 
While many commentators predict a further decline in the number of births and the fertility rate following the pandemic, as has been the case in historical economic recessions, COVID-19 was a health crisis first, rather than an economic one. While birth data for pandemic-conceived babies will not be available until late 2022, early anecdotal evidence and analysis of obstetrics and Medicare data suggests that there may be a short term increase in births throughout 2021 and 2022. This will contribute to increasing the population and also slowing the rate of population ageing. This is evident in TFR data for 30 June 2021, with an increase to 1.8 compared with 1.72 for the previous 12 months. However, data also shows a decline in the number of marriages throughout the pandemic so far. Given that marriage usually precedes first births, it is reasonable to assume that there may be a delay to starting parenthood for many couples, which may or may not be recuperated at a later date. Unless, of course, COVID-19 also reverses this historical life event pattern so that the first child arrives prior to marriage!

In terms of deaths, the pandemic forced us to be more conscious of our health and its impact on others’ health. Stay at home orders, physical distancing, washing hands and sanitising regularly contributed to lowering the infections circulating our community, particularly influenza. This resulted in a decline in both the death rate and the number of deaths in the state, particularly in the older age groups. This also contributes to population growth due to increasing natural increase (births minus deaths), and, in turn, contributes to the rate of ageing of our population.

In terms of overseas migration, immigration to Tasmania all but ceased during the pandemic, except for Australians returning home. Emigration from Tasmania increased considerably throughout the pandemic, likely the result of the large number of temporary visa holders such as international students, skilled migrants and other temporary workers, returning to their home countries due to the lack of support provided to them by the Australian Government during the pandemic. The number of migrants leaving Tasmania far exceeded the number of Australians returning to Tasmania from overseas, resulting in an overall net decline in overseas migration for Tasmania to 30 June 2021 for the first time on record of 444 persons. Prior to the pandemic the considerable growth in net overseas migration for Tasmania, and the age profile of those migrants, contributed to both population growth and slowing the rate of population ageing. Even with the opening of borders to Australia, it is unlikely that Tasmania will experience the same level of overseas migration in the short to medium term.

Which brings us to interstate migration for Tasmania. Historically, interstate migration has been the component of population change with the greatest influence not only on whether the state’s population grows or declines, but also on its rate of population ageing due to the age profile of the interstate migrants arriving in or leaving Tasmania. Net interstate migration is the difference between arrivals to Tasmania and the departures from Tasmania. In the five years prior to the pandemic, around 13,500 people arrived in Tasmania while around 12,000 left on average each year, leaving an annual net gain of around 1,500 people.
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For the year to June 2021, Tasmania recorded a net interstate migration gain of 49 persons. In that period, 13,735 people arrived to live in Tasmania and 13,686 people left to live interstate. While the number of people arriving in Tasmania increased considerably compared with the previous 12 months, the number of people leaving Tasmania to live elsewhere was the highest since 2004, a trend that began in 2015. 

As well as contributing to whether or not the population grows or declines, each of these six components of population change also contribute to the age profile of the Tasmanian population and whether or not our rate of ageing slows or increases. Regardless, given the mix of factors contributing to our growing population, it will also always be an ageing one.

Going forward as we continue to respond to the challenges that the COVID-19 pandemic presents us, it is difficult to predict what the impact on Tasmania's population growth will be, even with open borders. Critically, population change is much more complex than just interstate migrants knocking on our door. The decision to move interstate or overseas is a personal one, to or from Tasmania, and is influenced by a multitude of factors, as is whether or not to have a child (and how many to have). As we consider the future needs of our population, we need to appropriately plan for both opportunities and challenges in the context of all six components of population change.

NB this ABS data is for the period up to 30 June 2021, prior to the NSW, Victoria and ACT COVID-19 outbreaks and subsequent lockdowns, and prior to the comment made by the Premier.

Despite a similar proportion starting their formal schooling in Tasmania ‘developmentally vulnerable’ to those in Australia, the Tasmanian education system produces considerably lower levels of educational attainment compared with the national average by the time the respective cohorts have completed their schooling.

Analysis of NAPLAN data over a 10-year period shows that the literacy and numeracy skills of Tasmanian students as a cohort have declined as they progress through their schooling from lower primary to upper primary and to secondary schooling. This is despite students being regularly identified through a range of assessments as either at risk or below the expected standard throughout their schooling.

In 2012, around 1 in 5 (21.5%) Tasmanian children in their first year of school were identified in the Australian Early Development Census as being ‘developmentally vulnerable’ (1,308 students), similar to the proportion nationally. At least a further 15.6% were considered ‘developmentally at risk’.

By 2021, when this cohort was in grade 9 (around 6,634 students), 1,891 (28.5%) could not read above* the level expected to engage in the wider curriculum, 2,753 (41.5%) could not express themselves in written form above the level expected and 1,552 (23.4%) were not numerate.

Compared with 10 years prior (the 2011 grade 9 cohort), 2021 grade 9 students are considerably less proficient in literacy and numeracy knowledge and skills. The 2021 results also show an alarming decline in the high proficiency bands (9 and 10) and an equally alarming increase in the proportion below the expected standard in the range of literacy skills.

While policy priorities exist to improve both retention to year 12 and educational attainment in Tasmania, the implications of low and declining literacy and numeracy skills for successful school completion as well as participating in further education and training and securing meaningful work are dire, particularly for boys and those from low socio-economic backgrounds.

Research has consistently found that results of year 9 NAPLAN tests across the five learning areas – reading, numeracy, writing, spelling and grammar – are strong predictors of year 11 and 12 performance. While writing is the best predictor of successful school completion, spelling, grammar and punctuation are the best predictors of writing competence. Yet, in 2021, 2 in 5 Tasmanian grade 9 students do not have the writing skills above the level expected.
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For those year 9 students from a lower socio-economic background (using a proxy of highest level of educational attainment for parents and/or the skill level of their occupation) around two thirds do not have the expected writing ability which predicts successful school completion (64.3% for those whose parents have completed year 11, and 67.4% for those whose parents were not employed in the previous 12 months). 

While in the past, those will poorer literacy and numeracy skills have been able to secure employment in lower skill or manual work and/or pursue vocational education and training, these jobs are either transforming or disappearing with the infiltration of the technological revolution into work and life. As a result, the demand for strong foundational and occupation-specific language and literacy (communication) and numeracy skills is ever-increasing across the skill spectrum for all industry sectors and in a more highly-skilled, technology driven economy and society.

In its Workforce Development Needs 2018 report, the Australian Industry Group found that 99 per cent of employers are affected in some way by low levels of literacy and numeracy in their workforce with 39 per cent highly affected. The employers reported dissatisfaction with the use of English and basic numeracy and literacy levels of over one-fifth of school leaver workforce entrants. The most significant effects on the business were cited as poor completion of workplace documents and reports followed by teamwork and communication problems. The impact of these low levels of literacy and numeracy include time and/or material wastage, unsafe work practices, financial loss, teamwork challenges, and lack of confidence. Furthermore, due to a lack of specific workplace literacy and numeracy programs, employers are increasing their internal resources to militate the effect of the problem in the workplace, at considerable cost.

While the business community actively expresses dissatisfaction with the outcomes from vocational education and training in Tasmania, particularly by the public provider; TasTAFE, its voice is absent in the need to improve language, literacy and numeracy outcomes in our schools. If the Tasmanian schooling system ensured that all school leavers met the expected levels of literacy and numeracy, TasTAFE and other VET providers would be able to focus on delivering industry and occupation specific skills, education and training, rather than on skills which should have been acquired in school.  

The cost of poor language, literacy and numeracy skills of school leavers are borne over the long term not just by the individual themselves, but by all Tasmanians, the economy and society. Low literary and numeracy affects the type of jobs we can offer, the industries we can attract, support and sustain and the level and distribution of revenue for public services and infrastructure.
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These life-long- and long-term costs to the economy and society of Tasmanians not acquiring the necessary language, literacy and numeracy skills throughout their schooling is substantial, but it is also entirely preventable.
 

 
*Students who are below the national minimum standard have not achieved the learning outcomes expected for their year level. They are at risk of being unable to progress satisfactorily at school without targeted intervention.
Students who are performing at the national minimum standard may also require additional assistance to enable them to achieve their potential.

**An edited version of this blog was printed as a Talking Point article in the Mercury Newspaper on 21 December 2021

The full InSummary report analysing NAPLAN data for a 10 year period is available here