Dr Lisa Denny: Demographer
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Why Tony Abbott's Parental Leave Scheme is good for business

29/4/2013

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Initial reactions to Tony Abbott's parental leave scheme suggest that (big) business will be opposed to the levy placed on them to pay for it.  Here is a quick snapshot of why it would be good for business, as well as the economy and society in general.
  • The policy will create a level playing field for all.  There is growing evidence that women are choosing their employers based on the parental leave entitlements and this occurs a number of years prior to child-bearing intentions. 
  • Costs may decrease or increase for some organisations and industries, but will be constant and can appropriately be budgeted for. 
  • Support working mothers provide at least six months of critical infant care without the pressure to return to work
  • Female labour force participation is likely to increase, and women will return to the workforce sooner after having children
  • Protection for women from loss of income upon having children, employment security, superannuation continuity and engagement with the workforce provides greater equity for women as they age
  • Women are over half the population and have greater levels of educational attainment than men, any loss of their contribution to the workforce is a cost to business
  • Disincentives to employ or promote young women will be removed
  • May increase incentives for some industries to improve their gender balance
  • As population ageing increases and the supply of labour diminishes further, women will become increasingly important participants in the labour market, increasing the competition for them.
  • Women will have greater opportunity to obtain senior positions and increase board representation (due to continuation in the workforce)
  • The fertility rate will likely stabilise or slightly increase, providing insurance for a future supply of labour 

The empirical studies into the impact of both pronatalist policies and paid parental leave schemes in Australia suggest there is little capability of policy intervention influencing the increase of fertility rates, supporting the concept that low fertility and low female labour force participation is the result of observed market failure.  That is, it is society’s reliance on the tax transfer system which has shifted the economic benefit of having children from the private to the social domain, meaning that those who choose not to have children still have equal rights to the intergenerational transfers from other people’s future tax-paying children.  Essentially, those who have children create the future workforce and tax base, largely through their own private sacrifices.  Therefore, until greater value is placed on childbearing and rearing by society, and the opportunity cost of having children is significantly reduced, it is unlikely that fertility rates or labour force participation rates by women will increase further. 



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the importance of demography

12/12/2012

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Population ageing is sometimes overwhelming, often misunderstood, and, more critically, its importance to our economy and livelihood is ignored.

Demography is the study of human populations and thus population ageing. 

For all countries and regions (apart from one) economic growth is the mandate for all governments and economies. It is believed that economic growth increases standards of living. It is the term used to indicate the increase of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and refers only to the quantity of goods and services produced.

Economics is the branch of social science that deals with the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services and their management through the analysis of the Factors of Production. The factors of production are the four resources which enable production; land, labour, capital and enterprise.

Focussing on the labour component, labour is a measure of the work done by human beings. Labour economics seeks to understand the functioning and dynamics of the market for labour. Such analysts are predominantly concerned with labour in terms of labour force participation and unemployment.

But, given that labour must be produced on a daily basis to achieve economic growth it should also be accepted that labour must be reproduced on an intergenerational basis. 

This theory results in a concept known as Total Social Production. Total social production is where neither production nor reproduction can take place in the absence of the other. Therefore economic production and demographic reproduction are mutually interdependent. 

Most economic analysts see demographic reproduction as secondary to economic activity. This ignorance has been a significant contributory factor as to why we are experiencing population ageing now. What has been missed by policy makers is the ability to ensure that production and reproduction can co-exist.

To manage the implications of population ageing into the future, the role of demography is paramount and can not be ignored any longer. It is time social policy and economic policy co-existed.
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