Lisa Denny: Workforce Demographer
  • Home
  • Blog
  • Publications, Presentations and Media
  • Contract Research
  • InSummary

a few dot points on Tasmania's population

27/9/2013

0 Comments

 
The size of Tasmania's population has always been a subject of much discussion, as it is this week given the release of the ABS Australian Demographic Statistics which reported an annual population growth rate of 0.1 per cent for Tasmania, compared with the Australian rate of 1.8 per cent.

It is often easy to get fixated on short term population movements such as Net Interstate Migration (NIM) which is highly influenced by economic performance, yet the structural changes taking place in Tasmania's population warrant a longer term approach. 

Population change is influenced by three factors; natural increase (births minus deaths), Net Overseas Migration (NOM) and Net Interstate Migration (NIM).  However, it is the complex interaction of all three which influence the composition of Tasmania's population and its potential for growth over the longer term.  See the below chart.

NIM is the most volatile of the components and has the greatest impact on the age structure, or composition, of the population.  Traditionally, the state experiences net losses in the younger, working, studying and reproducing age groups and net gains in the very young and older ages. The movements are further influenced by the economic conditions at the time. 

The measure of NOM was changed by the ABS in 2009 to include all those people who have lived in the State for 12 out of the previous 16 months.  Included in the arrivals are long stays (those on business, skilled, family or humanitarian visas) and short stays (those on 457, student or working holiday visas).  This measure is helpful from an Estimated Resident Population (ERP) perspective and in planning for and providing appropriate infrastructure and services for the (current) population. However, in undertaking longer term projections and associated planning efforts it is less helpful as it assumes arrivals (and departures) are permanent and assigns them the same demographic assumptions as the resident population (ie fertility rates and life expectancy etc) for future projections. 

Historically, natural increase has been positive, however, the rate of increase is declining.  This is due to NIM movements, that is the increasing proportion of older people eventually resulting in an increase in the death rate, and the declining number of women in the reproducing age cohort resulting in a decline in the number of births (see my blog post on Tasmania's Vital Index for more information).

Combined, the impact on Tasmania's population means that the propensity for population growth is declining.  That is, population growth is projected to continue, but at a diminishing rate. 

In order to stabilise the population growth rate, (or more importantly influence the age structure and composition of the population) a more strategic effort beyond relying on a return to strong economic performance and investment attraction is required. 
Picture
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Archives

    April 2022
    March 2022
    December 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    February 2021
    November 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    June 2020
    October 2016
    July 2015
    June 2015
    March 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    August 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

    Categories

    All
    Births
    Confidence
    Deaths
    Demography
    Economic Growth
    Economic Performance
    Economics
    Education
    Employment
    Gen Y
    Labour Force
    Leadership
    Migration
    Population
    Population Ageing
    Population Growth
    Pride
    Productivity
    Tasmania
    Total Social Production
    Vital Index
    Youth
    Youth Unemployment

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.