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This snapshot provides an insight into the structural change that has occurred in the Tasmanian labour market over the past 12 months, incorporating a pre-pandemic analysis.

Compared with pre-pandemic times, in February 2020, when there were around 261,400 Tasmanians employed, in August 2020, there were 255,300 Tasmanians employed, more than the 248,700 employed in August 2019.

The employment to population ratio was 57.2, down from 58.8 in February 2020, however higher than the 56.4 in August 2019.

The unemployment rate in August 2020 was 6.3% compared with 4.9% in February 2020 and 6.4% in August 2019.

The labour force participation rate was 61.1% in August 2020, compared with 61.8% in February and 60.2% in August 2019.

Around 17,200 were actively looking for work in August 2020, compared with 14,500 in February and 16,900 in August 2019.

Given the JobKeeper payment masks true employment, structural change in the Tasmanian labour market will be analysed using original, hours actually worked data from the ABS Labour Force, Quarterly, Detailed publication released on 25th of September 2020.

This analysis looks at which industry sectors have increased or decreased the hours worked since February 2020 (pre-pandemic times) and August 2019 and how the share of hours worked has changed within the economy.

The top five industries for hours worked in August 2020, making up almost have of all hours actually worked (49.8%), were health care and social assistance (14.5 percentage point share), education and training (9.8 PP), retail trade (8.9 PP), construction (8.3 PP) and agriculture, forestry and fishing (8.3 PP).

In February 2020, manufacturing was in the top five industry sectors for hours worked, whereas retail trade was sixth.

Greater structural change in the economy is evident when compared with August 2019 when health care and social assistance, construction, education and training, retail trade and public administration and safety were the top five industries for hours actually worked.
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​Compared with pre-pandemic times, Tasmanians worked 1.4% less hours in August 2020 than in February 2020. Tasmanians worked more hours in seven industries compared with pre-pandemic times; professional, scientific and technical services (14.9%), retail trade (12.4%), logistics (11.4%), utilities (4.4%), health care and social assistance (3.8%), public administration and safety (1.2%) and education and training (1.1%). 

Compared with 12 months ago, Tasmanians worked 3.2% more hours in August 2020. All industries recorded more worked hours except for arts and recreation services (-46.6%), mining (-33.8%), information media and telecommunications (-14.6%), other services (-7.6%) and health care and social assistance (-2.4%).

In terms of the share of hours actually worked for the total Tasmanian economy since February 2020 (pre-pandemic) the greatest increase in the share of hours actually worked was in retail trade (1.1 percentage point increase in the share of hours worked) followed by professional, scientific and technical services (1.0 PP), healthcare and social assistance (0.7 PP) and logistics (0.6 PP). These gains in share of hours worked were offset by a decline in the share of hours worked in the accommodation and food services sector (-1.0 PP), construction (-0.8 PP), arts and recreation services (-0.5 PP) and administrative and support services (-0.4 PP).

The structural change in the economy is vastly different over the 12 month period when compared with August 2019. Over 12 months, the economy saw a shift to agriculture, forestry and fishing (0.9 PP), professional, scientific and technical services (0.9 PP), utilities (0.8 PP), logistics (0.6 PP) and education and training (0.5 PP). This shift was offset by declines in the share of the hours worked in construction (-1.1 PP), arts and recreation services (-1.1 PP), healthcare and social assistance (-0.8 PP) and mining (-0.6 PP).  The share of the hours worked had no change for manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, accommodation and food services and public administration and safety.

This analysis points to an increase in spending and/or discretionary income over the six months since February 2020, being realised by, or redirected to, the retail trade and associated logistics sector, from the accommodation and food services, construction and arts and recreation sectors, as well as an understandable increase in health care and social assistance during the pandemic period. It raises the question of what the impact of the reduction of the JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments on employment and hours worked will be into the future, at least over the short term.

However, when compared with 12 months ago, prior to the pandemic, the change in the share of hours actually worked shifted to sectors which are predominantly trade/market sectors (agriculture, forestry and fishing) and higher skilled (professional, scientific and technical services, as well as utilities and education and training), indicating a positive structural shift which may result in employed people working more hours for higher levels of income, which can then be distributed as discretionary income in the wider economy. change in the professional, scientific and technical services sector is also a leading indictor for change in the construction sector, suggesting that increases in the hours worked in the construction sector is possible in the short term. 

The decline in both the number of hours worked, as well as the share, in health care and social assistance is both surprising and concerning given the impact of the pandemic on our health and well-being as well as the pressure the Tasmanian health system was under prior to the pandemic and the need to ensure the state is prepared for COVID-19 outbreaks into the future. 

On International Literacy Day it is important that we ask, what does it mean to be literate? Literally, being literate means that a person is able to read and write to a level that enables them to function in society.
In addition to the personal benefits that arises from sharing a story with a child, making a choice from a menu of options, or being challenged from the ideas written in a newspaper – literacy supports health, employment and well-being outcomes over the life-course.
In 2019, one in five Tasmanian grade seven students started the year at or below the National Minimum Standard (NMS) for reading. The minimum standard represents a very low level of reading skill, so the 1,437 Tasmanians who started grade 7 in 2019, is actually a very conservative estimate of the true number of grade 7 Tasmanian students who struggle with reading. Those who are not reading proficiently by this age are highly likely to struggle with the demands of the wider curriculum and are more likely to not complete school.
This poor level of reading skill was identified in both the Year 3 and Year 5 NAPLAN assessments for this grade 7 cohort. Evidence suggests that what is being done is not yet improving results. Most students who were at or below the NMS in grade 3 and grade 5, still were by the time they started high school. Furthermore, the proportion of grade seven students who were at or above the NMS has been declining since 2014, despite a gain in the average mean score.  
In addition to the personal benefits that accrue from literacy there are broader economic and societal gains. It is estimated that for every cohort that doesn’t complete school, costs the Australian economy $12 billion over their lifetime.
In Tasmania, over half (57%) of those of working age (15 to 64 years) have not completed year 12.  Of those who have completed year 12, three quarters (75.2%) are employed, as are 68.1% of those who completed year 10. Only 38% of those who completed year 9 or below are employed.
When being literate is vital to secure individual, social and economic outcomes for Tasmania, why is it not a public policy and industry priority of the highest order?
The Business Council of Australia’s recent publication, “The Modern Worker: a guide to what employers want”, explicitly outlines employer expectations for the first day of work. Literacy and numeracy capabilities are a pre-requisite. The BCA encapsulates literacy as the ability to read and write an email using sentences, understanding vocabulary and the meaning of words in a sentence and paragraph, being able to follow instructions in manuals and interpret, assess and evaluate information from the perspective of the job as well as oral communication skills; being able to hold professional conversations with colleagues, clients or customers.  These are literacy skills many of us take for granted, but, in Tasmania, almost half the working age population is not functionally literate.
Literacy skills need to be supported from birth and then throughout the lifecourse. There are ways to do this.
Sharing books, stories, songs and rhymes every day from birth fosters emergent literacy development and supports attachment. Reading and talking to young children builds language skills and sparks imagination. Reading, looking at books, or sharing stories is also a special time to snuggle up and connect. The Channel Basics, using an evidence-based model, is working with children, families and communities to foster early childhood development outcomes.
Fivefromfive, AUSPELD and Learning Difficulties Australia recently launched a plan to have all students reading by the end of primary school; the Primary Reading Pledge. In the plan they provide a framework to ensure that the number of children who finish primary school in Australia unable to read is reduced to near zero.
The #primaryreadingpledge calls on all Australian Education Ministers to ensure that schools and systems are able to provide children the high quality evidence-based reading instruction they need (and deserve). The pledge argues that NAPLAN is an indicator that should be acted upon if students are identified in grade 3 as not meeting the NMS. Through direct and explicit intervention - reading instruction based on the cognitive processes of learning to read - all children should be supported so they do not start grade 7 below the NMS.
Recognising the importance of reengaging adults with opportunities to gain literacy skills is vital and achievable. 26TEN has made positive inroads and the work of former Tasmanian of the Year Rosalie Martin is also to be applauded in leading the charge for the #100percentliteracy goal in Tasmania.
A continued policy focus on core educational skills – such as literacy – is vital for Tasmania’s prosperity. There is much more to be done to ensure that literacy is at the core of policy, planning and program activity now and into the future across government, industry and the community.
 
Dr Lisa Denny is an independent Workforce Demographer and Dr Becky Shelley is the Deputy Director at the Peter Underwood Centre for Educational Attainment at the University of Tasmania. 
This article was published as a Talking Point in the Mercury on Tuesday 8 September 2020.
https://www.themercury.com.au/news/opinion/talking-point-what-does-it-mean-to-be-literate/news-story/f9fd061bf88c93660bbdfa948ffe5235​

Life, and work, is challenging for young Australians. While the economic implications of the current COVID-19 global pandemic, the GFC and the subsequent policy direction for economic recovery contribute to, and exacerbate, these challenges, they are not the cause. No, the cause of young Australians life challenges is rooted in primary school. There has been a collective failure of our economy and society to inform, educate, inspire and ignite passion in our younger generations to aspire to a job and career of the future.
The OECD report, Dream Jobs? Teenagers Career Aspirations and the Future of Work, found that two in five Australian students expected to work in one of ten occupations by the age of 30 (52% of girls/42% of boys). The study essentially found that it is jobs with origins in the 20th century or earlier that are most attractive to young people rather than jobs of the future.
The report concluded; ‘that increasingly the expectations of young people may be out of date and unrealistic. Over the period of the greatest accumulation of human capital during a lifetime, the data indicate that many young people are intent on pursuing jobs that they have little chance of securing’.
A number of Australian studies using Longitudinal Survey of Australian Youth (LSAY) and the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) data draw the same conclusions; that young people do not have a full appreciation of the types of jobs available to them, resulting in their career aspirations falling within a narrow set of occupations, not all of which are realistic, and which have been narrowing further over time. The top three expected occupations for young women were registered nurse, solicitor and primary school teacher, while for young men the top three occupations were engineering professional, policeman and electrician.
Studies out of the UK and New Zealand conclude that teenager’s career aspirations are shaped at much earlier ages, between 7 and 11 years of age. These studies further link current labour market skill mismatches to the career aspirations of primary school children and further conclude that there is ‘nothing in common’ between young people’s career aspirations and the reality of the labour market. 
These findings are even more concerning when considered in conjunction with other studies which detail the deep anxiety that young Australians are feeling (prior to COVID-19). The 2019 Mission Australia Youth Survey found that mental health was the most significant issue for young people in Australia today, for the third year running. The cumulative effect of a range of stresses reported by young Australians; anxiety about their ability to find meaningful work, financial insecurity, equity and discrimination, lack of affordable housing, rising cost of living, the environment and climate change and the sustainability of their lifestyle, is having a deep impact on young Australians well-being.  
These anxieties are further linked to the competition for jobs, inadequate education and training and a lack of skills and experience. Young Australians want to be given a fair chance and a fair go when seeking employment. At the same time, young people fear working in a job they are not interested in or passionate about. They feel they only have one chance to end up in a career they want, they feel their opportunities are limited, they feel they are not progressing and they are struggling to navigate a career path in a rapidly changing world for work.
An OECD Youth Voice for the Future of Work study of 19 of the G20 nations found that the only 39% of young Australians were confident they would be able to find a job they really wanted to do. Compared with a 50% average, Australia ranked 14th out of 19.  
Reports from the Foundations for Young Australians, the 2019 Mission Australia Youth Survey and analysis of Longitudinal Survey of Australian Youth (LSAY) data all find that young Australians lack confidence about their working futures. Young people report being affected by stress and anxiety when looking for work, less than half are confident in their ability to achieve their work and study goals, despite almost all intending to complete year 12. Almost half report there are barriers to achieving their post-school aspirations, young women more so than young men, and that the top three barriers young people consider to be impacting their goals after finishing school were academic ability, mental health and financial difficulty. The top three perceived barriers to finding suitable employment are a lack of work experience, a lack of jobs and lack of the right education and/or training. They also believed their age was a barrier to employment.
 Young people’s potential to achieve their dreams and aspirations may be further compromised by confusion about how education and qualifications are related to jobs and careers. A key indicator of young people’s capacity to understand and progress in the labour market is the extent to which their educational and occupational aspirations are aligned.  However, numerous Australian studies have found that there is considerable confusion relating to educational pathways and their alignment with occupations. For young Australians responding to another OECD survey, less than one in ten believed that school had prepared them for adult working life, they do not feel supported by their education system. Nearly half fear that their skills or knowledge won’t be in demand in the future. Australia’s result was the 7th lowest of 19 countries compared with the average of 26%.
Prior to COVID-19, over half the Australian workforce comprised jobs in health care, social and personal services, administration, sales and hospitality. The Department of Employment, Education and Skills projected that labour demand would continue to grow in these areas to 2024, distributed between high and low skill jobs.
However, the COVID-19 global pandemic has, and will continue to, reshape the Australian labour market and the underlying industry structure for years to come, making projections of the past almost obsolete. Jobs of the future will now be dependent on the decisions taken today in relation to economic, industry, social, industrial relations and education and training policies and how they each intersect.
The implications of these misalignments between educational aspirations, career aspirations and the reality of the labour market are far reaching. The recent BCA’s The Modern Worker – a guide to what employers want, comprehensively sets out the requirements of the future workforce from an employer’s perspective, but fails to align these needs with the considerable evidence relating to the needs, desires, concerns and values of young Australians and their aspirations for work and life. In fact, the predictions of the future of work; the type and how people engage in work, is not necessarily what the future generation of workers want. This will have implications for employers in attracting and retaining workers. And for the future workforce, this misalignment is causing deep anxiety.
Add to this challenge, over one in five Tasmanians start grade 7 below or at the minimum national standard for reading. We need to reverse the trend of setting our young children up to fail from primary school.
 

Jobs jobs jobs. Job creation has always been a priority economic policy of successive governments, just as it is now as the recovery phase of the global pandemic crisis begins. However, prior to COVID-19, there was little acknowledgement that not all jobs are the same.

The COVID-19 crisis has revealed how polarised and inequitable our employment market has been in the past. Not only has the pandemic exposed the vulnerability of the industry structure of our economy and the precarious nature of employment for so many, it has also highlighted the importance of the work carried out by so many Tasmanians whose industry and jobs have previously been undervalued; namely the health care and social assistance sector, educators, child carers, cleaners and many public servants.

The recovery process provides the opportunity to correct the structural economic and social deficiencies that exist in our labour market. Policy needs to move beyond just creating jobs, but to creating good jobs which offer quality work in a good working environment. There are three guiding principles which measure good jobs, all of which need to be objective rather than subjective.

1. Focusing on job-related well-being; job quality is constituted by a set of work features which have the capability of enhancing or diminishing worker well-being
2. Maintaining a job-only focus; that is, the attributes of the job occupied by the worker and not the workers personal circumstances or background
3. Adopting a multi-faced approach; a variety of job attributes impact worker well-being. While remuneration is considered the main factor, there are others such as security of work, autonomy, range of tasks, level of effort, career opportunities, access to training and/or professional development, flexibility, skill utilisation and so forth.

The OECD’s job quality framework comprises measures of earnings, labour market security and the quality of the working environment.

In Tasmania, prior to COVID-19, the workforce was polarised between high and low skill jobs. Almost half the workforce (47.1%) required no formal qualification higher than a Certificate II, while less than a third (29.7%) required a bachelor degree or higher to undertake their job. Over time, Tasmania’s workforce was becoming further polarised, with the proportion requiring a certificate III or IV qualification (a trade ticket) declining to 12.6% of the workforce compared with 16.6% in 2016.
 
More and more people in the workforce were also in casual roles – that is, roles with flexibility, but usually without job security and the protections of sick, carer and holiday pay.

In August 2019, there were almost 250,000 people employed in Tasmania. Of these:

• 42,500 wanted to work more hours
• 17,000 had more than one job
• 97,200 were employed casually
• 93,800 did not have access to paid sick leave entitlements – three in five workers
  • 26.3% of women, 21.4% of men
• 4,600 did not know if they had paid sick leave entitlements
• 18,700 worked as independent contractors with no entitlements

 
The Tasmanian workforce was dominated by gendered industries and occupation clusters. Five industry sectors made up more than half of the Tasmanian workforce; healthcare and social assistance (16.4%), education and training, retail trade, accommodation and food services and construction (7.2%). While women made up the majority of workers in health care and social assistance (80.2%) and education and training (69.4%), men made up 93.9% of the construction industry.
 
The roles most likely to be casualised, underemployed and working more than one job are those also in lower skill level jobs with low pay – precisely those roles that involve face-to-face and hands-on contact, care and support for customers, clients, patients and other vulnerable people.
 
In relation to paid sick leave entitlements in Tasmania, pre-COVID-19, only a quarter (26.7) of cleaners had access to paid leave, just over half the hospitality, retail and service managers (53%) and food trade workers (57%), 69% of education professionals had access while one in five (21%) workers in residential care services had no access. The situation was more dire for those who worked as a carer or an aide; one in four (24.7%) had no paid sick leave but worked face-to-face with older and more vulnerable people.
 
These workers were also more likely to be under-employed and wanting to work more hours. Over one in five community and personal service workers were underemployed (21.6%), over a quarter of those employed in the accommodation and food services sector were under-employed (27.4%), as were those in the arts and recreation sector (25.0%), 17.2% in other services and 16.7% in retail trade, the majority of them women.  

At a time when making businesses and workplaces COVIDSafe for customers, clients and workers is a priority in our economic and social recovery, the lack of access to paid sick leave by largely under-employed Tasmanians working in contact roles with vulnerable people threatens our recovery. As new COVIDSafe policies require sick workers to stay at home rather than work, and sick children to not attend school, access to paid sick and carer leave entitlements will be critical to ensuring these regulations are adhered to.
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The economic component of the post COVID-19 recovery must not be considered in isolation of the social component.  Efforts to create jobs must focus not just on higher skilled jobs but also on quality jobs; those which provide enough hours of work, with security of income, access to paid sick and carers leave, the opportunity for career progression and intrinsic job quality. To do this, economic policy must be shaped by industry policy. More secure work and quality working environments are better for the economy as well as the health and well-being of Tasmanians. 

As the Premier and his Economic and Social Recovery Advisory Council consider both the economic and social impact of COVID-19 for Tasmania, it is critical that that a recovery plan is founded in evidence with a long-term objective to achieve economic and social sustainability for all Tasmanians.

While in the short term, stimulating economic activity will be critical to ensure that the health crisis does not cause a deep, long lasting economic crisis, targeted short-term stimulus can also set the foundations to achieve greater longer term economic and social outcomes.  

I believe there are four key opportunities for Tasmania going forward, each linked to our existing, pre-COVID-19 structural challenges.

1. Approach the investment in the health care and social assistance industry as an economic and social opportunity
2. Use the opportunities attached to population ageing to address the challenges of ageing
3. Prioritise industry policy that aims to increase diversity across industries and markets
4. Aim to achieve a ‘strong middle’ educational attainment structure (EAS)

 
Given the current situation of the COVID-19 global pandemic, with the state and national borders effectively closed to immigration (see recent migration analysis for Tasmania), it is likely that population growth will slow considerably in the short to medium term and that the rate of population ageing will intensify.  Future economic and social policy development for Tasmania will need to be positioned in the context of a population with low or no population growth and ageing rapidly.

Even when Tasmania was experiencing its strongest rate of population growth in a Century, the population was still ageing, and ageing at a faster rate than the rest of the country. Nearly half of Tasmania’s Local Government Areas had already been experiencing population decline for a prolonged period prior to the pandemic. When, and if, Tasmania returns to relatively strong population growth, it will continue to age, both in terms of the number of older people and in terms of proportion of the total population.

Prior to the pandemic, the health care and social assistance sector contributed both the highest proportion to Gross State Product (GSP) and to employment than any other industry sector, yet its contribution was not valued as such in the community. Research by the University of Tasmania’s Institute of Social Change found that Tasmanians greatest wish into the post-COVID-19 future in Tasmania is access to a quality healthcare.

First, greater understanding of the Return on Investment (RoI) in the health care and social assistance sector and the potential of the White Economy, would assist shift this negative perception and also inform greater investment in the provision of health care and social assistance in Tasmania.

Second, as the Premier considers his infrastructure and construction plan, investment in the regeneration and re-purposing of the built environment in relation to population ageing also needs to be considered.

Revitalisation of regional centres and public spaces can both stimulate economic activity in regional areas but also ensure that the new infrastructure meets the needs of that community.

As regional populations age and/or decline, their town centres and public spaces can also deteriorate, creating a fragmented and under-utilised spatial structure. The visible degradation of the built environment, for example houses, buildings and other public infrastructure can impact the perception of the place and detract people from living there. Policy initiatives that target the revitalisation of a town centre and its periphery in response to shrinkage have two main aims; to improve standards of living through urban renewal while maintaining cultural heritage and to improve social cohesion.

A number of major towns in Tasmania could benefit from urban renewal projects which focus on the regeneration of the existing built environment and the revitalisation, re-purposing and right-sizing of public and private infrastructure, services, amenities and housing to meet the needs of their changing populations. Appropriate towns to consider for fit-for-purpose urban renewal projects are those with transport corridors and access to other towns within their periphery, as well as to towns and major urban centres outside their immediate periphery which may provide larger-scale public services to their community.

Third, to safe-guard against external shocks, Tasmania needs to improve the diversity of its industry structure and markets, particularly focusing on increasing the traded-market sector of the economy.

In 2019 the The BankWestCurtin Economic Centre developed a strategy for future-proofing the Western Australian economy. The research underpinning this strategy could be quickly and easily replicated for Tasmania.
The strategy is based on the framework of economic complexity developed by the Harvard University Kennedy Business School (explained here from an Australian context), and smart specialisation.  A‘smart specialisation’ approach to regional diversification ensures that new development opportunities build on existing regional capabilities and capitalise on local conditions and networks as well as boost their competitive advantage by prioritising innovation and research.

Strategic new product opportunities are further diversified according to a realistic indicator of either; ‘low-hanging fruit’, balanced portfolio or a ‘long jump’.

Tasmania needs to identify its low hanging fruit to start building the foundations of a more diversified economy from which to build a stronger economy over the longer term.

Fourth, in addition to improving the participation in, and completion of, schooling and further education for individual Tasmanians, much greater attention needs to be provided to the Educational Attainment Structure (EAS) of Tasmania’s workforce and future workforce.  

The International Labour Organisation (ILO) suggests that type of EAS, rather than levels of educational attainment, is the most significant determinant of the pattern of industrial development and economic growth. The type of EAS is explained by the share of the labour force based on educational attainment according to its shape along a bell curve.

The ILO argues that capabilities to innovate and develop new products are influenced by the particular mix of educational, vocational and technical competencies embodied in the labour force.

‘Strong middle’ EAS are those with relatively higher shares of vocational and technical education and training. This EAS provides the widest range of options for developing and diversifying industry structures.

‘Missing-middle’ EAS are polarised and present with relatively lower shares of vocational and technical education but higher shares of schooling and tertiary education. Missing middle EASs provide limited options for innovation as the labour force lacks the broad supply of complementary occupations required in addition to tertiary qualified managers and professionals. 

Critically absent in a missing middle EAS is a workforce with design skills; skills that enable workforces to invent their own products and solutions rather than just skills to replicate others’ designs. These skills are predominantly acquired in vocational and technical education at the diploma or advanced diploma level.

Tasmania currently has a missing middle EAS and its workforce is skewed to both high and low skill occupations.

Without a strong middle EAS workforce and a focus on diversifying the economy, combined with a low population growth situation, and an ageing population, Tasmania will struggle to recover from the economic consequences of this global pandemic crisis. 

Men and women experience a vastly different pattern of attachment to the labour force which still reflects the traditional life course model of male  breadwinner and female care giver. The level of attachment to the labour force differs for men and women depending on the presence or not of a partner and the presence or not of children. Until equity in the home and the workforce is achieved, gender equality will not be possible.

​The below charts illustrate the labour force status for men and women for approximately 6 million 25 to 64 year old Australians with post school qualifications (vocational or tertiary qualification) by the presence of a partner or presence of children; no children (NC), dependent children (DC) those aged younger than 15 or attending full time study, or non-dependent children (NDC) those aged over 15. This represents 58 percent of all Australians aged 25 to 64.

Clearly evident is that men increase their level of attachment to the labour force with the addition of a partner and further with the addition of a child. The converse is true for women; women reduce their level of attachment to the labour force with the presence of a partner and further reduce it with addition of a child. Furthermore, these patterns are consistent for all five year age groups.

While not discounting the role and contribution of partnering and parenting to society, both have a long term impact on women. Noting this is a cross-sectional analysis, rather than longitudinal, even when women no longer have dependent children, their level of attachment to the labour force is lower than those without children, regardless of the presence of a partner or not. Furthermore, labour force participation is dominated by part time employment for women who are partnered and those who have children.

Until equitable and fair participation is achieved in the home and at work, equal opportunity for men and women in the workforce will be difficult to achieve. A cultural shift in the home is required before structural opportunities can be realised.

Numerous studies have identified that people who have visited Tasmania are more likely to consider moving to the State. As such, the role that the tourism experience will play in contributing to population growth in Tasmania will be considerable.

The shift towards the concept of a visitor economy being touted by Dr James Cretan, Chair of Tourism Tasmania, by expanding on the current tourism led economic revival efforts is a good one. This is particularly so given that visitor economy models focus on strengthening supply chains and infrastructure investment which contribute to developing a well-diversified economy providing greater opportunity for secure employment. In the past one of the key drivers for outward migration has been the lack of employment opportunities in Tasmania, contributing to the current scenario of projected population decline.

The visitor economy model is one which transitions the concept of a tourism industry based on the direct consumption of tourism related products and services to a broader concept encompassing the indirect economic and social contribution of industry sub-sectors which rely on and support the direct tourism industry. The visitor economy is largely focused on the supply side of the tourism industry equation.

This is clearly important when considering a Deloitte report “Capturing the Visitor Economy: A framework for success” which showed that there is a strong relationship between the contribution to the GDP of a country’s tourism sector to the government expenditure on the sector, but there is no correlation between the quality of the tourism offering (measured by competiveness rank) and the level of government expenditure on the sector.  This finding suggests that the quality of the tourism offering is more closely related to the attributes of the visitor economy capital. To that end it is the supply side factors such as the effective delivery of infrastructure and relative attractiveness of the place which will have the greatest long term impact on the broader economy, and population.  

Tasmania’s unbalanced population age structure, caused by a disproportionately lower number of working and reproducing aged people, is contributing to Tasmania’s imminent projected population decline. The best solution to mitigate Tasmania’s anticipated population decline and to adequately provide for the population is to retain and attract working families to Tasmania.

Given the interrelated nature of the tourism experience, the potential visitor economy creating employment opportunities and the need to address the challenges of projected population decline by attracting the working and reproducing age population, it makes sense to ensure that Tasmania’s tourism marketing efforts also captures this demographic.

Tasmania’s tourism market is dominated by domestic (Australian) visitors. Tourism Tasmania’s research of those Australians most likely to be influenced to visit the state identified two target audiences: those aged 40+ couples seeking a touring experience and aged 25 to 39 couples wanting a short break.

The reality is that these couple DINKs (Double Income No Kids) now have kids in tow. Over the past decade, Australia has experienced a baby boom. From 2004 to 2013 there were 2,907,847 babies born in Australia, 391,265 more than the previous decade, an increase of 15.5 per cent. Almost 78 per cent of these babies were born to women aged 25 to 39. Those educated and wealthy couples who had previously delayed their childbearing to pursue education, careers and other opportunities are now playing catch up, or demographically speaking ‘recuperating delayed births’, contributing to both a rise in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and the number of babies being born. Importantly however, research suggests that these former DINKs wish to maintain the lifestyle they led pre-children, including holidays. 

At the time of the ABS 2011 Census of Population and Housing 60 per cent of 25 to 39 year old women had at least one child – ranging from 38 per cent of 25 to 29 year old women to 79 per cent of 35 to 39 year old women.

Restricting marketing efforts to target couples only, not only reduces the size of the market segment, but impacts on the ability to attract working and reproducing families to move to Tasmania.

With Lonely Planet listing Tasmania as the second most family-friendly travel destination in Australia, it is important to ensure the State delivers on (supply side) expectations. This doesn’t mean creating serendipitous theme parks, but ensuring that tourism providers more adequately provide for positive family experiences. If the kids are happy, the parents will linger longer, spend more and perhaps even move to Tasmania.

Labour force data released by the ABS today shows changes in employment by industry (ANZSIC divison 1) over time. 

The changes over the past 3 months, 12 months, 3 years and 5 years demonstrate the volatility of the Tasmanian employment market and the impact of factors such as economic conditions (locally and globally) and policy intervention. The table below shows the difference in the number of people employed in each industry sector in May 2015 compared with the previous period in each column. 

Comparing employment figures to the previous 12 months removes the seasonality factors associated with the quarterly difference and coincides with the stabilisation of the Tasmanian economy and a new Government and policy direction. 

Since May 2014, the greatest employment gain has been in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry sector which encompasses architectural, engineering, legal, accounting, advertising, market research, management, consulting, veterinarian and computer design services. The greatest employment loss has been in the Accommodation and Food Services sector.  The below table shows the change in employment for each industry sector compared with May 2014. 

In terms of whether employment growth has been in wealth generating, essential services or consequential industry sectors (as per my recent blog), growth has been dominated by jobs in the essential services sectors, particularly the health care and social assistance sector which is consistent with projected increasing demand resulting from an ageing population and the roll out of the NDIS. Employment losses are evident in the consequential sectors such as accommodation and food services and construction.  Since May 2014, there has been minimal net growth in wealth generating industries, with growth in manufacturing compensating for losses in mining and agriculture, forestry and fishing. 

If Tasmania is to become more self-reliant, job creation efforts need to focus on growth in the wealth-generating sectors which will then support growth in the consequential sectors and assist provide, and fund, essential services for the broader population. 

Long term job creation in Tasmania, and its future economic stability, will result from growing those industry sectors which I refer to as wealth generating industries. 

Industry sectors can be classified as either wealth generating, essential services or consequential industry sectors.  

Wealth generating industries are those in the private sector which are predominantly trade based sectors. Wealth generating industries are positive net contributors of tax receipt revenue through both sectoral core business activity and associated taxes and through the employment of tax payers. 

Essential services industries are those sectors which are largely funded by public money to provide essential services to the population. 

Consequential industries are those sectors reliant on the availability of discretionary income (the amount of an individual's (and households) after tax income available for spending after the essentials have been taken care of )[1].  Discretionary income comes in the form of the employed population, tourists, international students and financially independent individuals; increasingly self-funded retirees in an ageing population. Consequential industries are also dependent on the business confidence of wealth generating industries, and to a lesser degree, essential services industries, in the form of both investment and employment decisions. 

The ability to provide essential services to a population is dependent on government revenue collected through tax receipts. and of course, Commonwealth distributions. 

Each ANZSIC sector is classified into wealth generating, essential services and consequential industries in the table attached below. The Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services industry sector is an interesting one to classify given it is dominated by GBEs, however, given its dependence on wealth generating industries consumption and households, it is classified as a consequential industry. 

In Tasmania's case, as at June 2014, wealth generating industries account for only 21 per cent of GSP contribution and 18 per cent of the share of employment. Whereas, consequential industries account for 50 per cent of GSP and 50 per cent of employment and essential services industries, predominantly funded by public money, contributes 29 per cent to GSP and to almost a third of employment in Tasmania, as per the diagram below. This distribution by wealth generating, essential services and consequential industry sectors makes Tasmania highly vulnerable to economic shocks. 

The contribution to GSP and employment by individual ANZSIC codes is provided in the figure below. 

Given that job creation in consequential sectors is dependent upon an increase in discretionary income and business confidence, and job creation in the essential services is dependant on fiscal sustainability in public finances, long term job creation will be dependent on growth in the wealth generating industry sectors. 

Increased investment and employment in wealth generating sectors will result in an increase in the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) of individual and households.  

When MPC increases, consumption in consequential sectors is likely to increase, increasing employment, as such, tax receipts will increase correspondingly and likely result increased government expenditure in the form of infrastructure spending and employment in the essential services sectors.  When MPC decreases (in times of economic downturn), consumption in consequential sectors decreases and job losses occur (unless demand is stimulated by external sources e.g. tourists, international students, financially independent people etc). Furthermore, the ability to provide essential services is compromised in times of economic downturn. 

If Tasmania is to enjoy long term, sustainable employment growth into the future, then job creation needs to focus on the wealth generating industry sectors. To grow these sectors, attention needs to be provided to improving and increasing the 3Cs - competitiveness, capability and capacity as I have outlined in a previous blog and presentation - Tasmania's productivity profile. 

[1] Discretionary income is disposable income (after-tax income), minus all payments that are necessary to meet current bills. It is total personal income after subtracting taxes and typical expenses (such as rent or mortgage, utilities, insurance, medical, transportation, property maintenance, child support, food and sundries, etc.) to maintain a certain standard of living

Yesterday the Australian Bureau of Statistics released new regional migration data estimating both interstate and intrastate migration movements within Australia (catalogue 3412.0). 

Available data includes arrivals, departures and net movements by age and sex for various sub-state geographies (SA3, SA4 and LGA) for the years ending 30 June 2006/07 to 2013/14.

The new data provides for much greater insight and understanding of population movements in smaller areas than previously possible. This can be used to inform planning, provision of services (e.g. child care, schools, aged care, public transport etc) and investment in infrastructure (roads, community amenities, communications technology etc) much more effectively. 

There is much that can be done with this data, so I just provide a quick snapshot using three different data sets. 

The first data set provides estimates of arrivals, departures and net migration movements by local government area (LGA) for the 8 years from 2006/07 to 2013/14.  The below figure shows the average annual net gains or losses for each LGA. The Glenorchy, Launceston and Hobart municipalities recorded the greatest average migration losses while the Kingborough, Latrobe and Sorell municipalities recorded the greatest average gains. This data is also available at the SA2 level, but given there are 98 SA2s, I have not presented the data here. However, this data would be particularly useful for local councils to gain a greater understanding of change within smaller areas of their municipalities. 

The second data set provides estimates of net migration movements by age at the SA3 geographical classification level. This data is particularly useful in understanding the changes in the age profile of the region and how it may impact on service provision in the area. It can also provide an indication of the rate of ageing and potential for growth/decline in the area. I have aggregated the data into 0 to 14 years, working age (15 to 64 years) and 65 and older. As is evident in the figure below few areas experienced average gains in all age groups. Gains in those aged 0 to 14 will contribute to making the area younger, while comparative gains in those aged 65 and older will contribute to the ageing of the population at a greater rate. Large changes in the working age group impacts on the potential supply of labour and the ability to service the needs of the area, particularly in areas beyond an acceptable commuting distance. 

The final data set for this snapshot is the migration by region of arrival and departure. As the table below shows, for 2013/14, almost a quarter of all regional migration movements out of the Hobart, Launceston and North East or the West and North West regions of Tasmania remain in Tasmania.  The eastern seaboard states of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland attract the majority of the other migration movements. 

It is likely that the Australian Population Association (APA) will run some half day courses on using and understanding demographic data in Tasmania in the near future.  If you are interested in attending a course, please express interest to me via email lisa at lisadenny.com.au.  I will be able to provide further information when it becomes available.